It is unclear if current programmes in China can achieve the post-2015 global targets for tuberculosis – 50% reduction in incidence and a 75% reduction in mortality by 2025. Chinese policy-makers need to maintain the recent decline in the prevalence of tuberculosis, while revising control policies to cope with an epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis and the effects of ongoing health reform. Health reforms are expected to shift patients from tuberculosis dispensaries to designated hospitals. We developed a mathematical model of tuberculosis control in China to help set appropriate targets and prioritize interventions that might be implemented in the next 10 years. This model indicates that, even under the most optimistic scenario – improved treatment in tuberculosis dispensaries, introduction of a new effective regimen for the treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis and optimal care of cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis – the current global targets for tuberculosis are unlikely to be reached. However, reductions in the incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis should be feasible. We conclude that a shift of patients from tuberculosis dispensaries to designated hospitals is likely to hamper efforts at tuberculosis control if cure rates in the designated hospitals cannot be maintained at a high level. Our results can inform the planning of tuberculosis control in China.
China has the world’s second largest burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB; resistance to at least isoniazid and rifampicin), with an estimated 57,000 cases (range, 48,000–67,000) among notified pulmonary TB patients in 2015. During October 1, 2006–June 30, 2014, China expanded MDR-TB care through a partnership with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund). We analyzed data on site expansion, patient enrolment, treatment outcomes, cost per patient, and overall programme expenditure. China expanded MDR-TB diagnostic and treatment services from 2 prefectures in 2006 to 92 prefectures, covering 921 of the country’s 3,000 counties by June 2014. A total of 130,910 patients were tested for MDR-TB, resulting in 13,744 laboratory-confirmed cases, and 9,183 patients started on MDR-TB treatment. Treatment success was 48.4% (2011 cohort). The partnership between China and the Global Fund resulted in enormous gains. However, changes to health system TB delivery and financing coincided with the completion of the Global Fund Programme, and could potentially impact TB and MDR-TB control. Transition to full country financial ownership is proving difficult, with a decline in enrollment and insufficient financial coverage. Given needed improvement to the current treatment success rates, these factors jeopardise investments made for MDR-TB control and care. China now has a chance to cement its status in TB control by strengthening future financing and ensuring ongoing commitment to quality service delivery.
ObjectiveTo calculate the yield and cost per diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) case for three World Health Organization screening algorithms and one using the Chinese National TB program (NTP) TB suspect definitions, using data from a TB prevalence survey of people aged 65 years and over in China, 2013.MethodsThis was an analytic study using data from the above survey. Risk groups were defined and the prevalence of new TB cases in each group calculated. Costs of each screening component were used to give indicative costs per case detected. Yield, number needed to screen (NNS) and cost per case were used to assess the algorithms.FindingsThe prevalence survey identified 172 new TB cases in 34,250 participants. Prevalence varied greatly in different groups, from 131/100,000 to 4651/ 100,000. Two groups were chosen to compare the algorithms. The medium-risk group (living in a rural area: men, or previous TB case, or close contact or a BMI <18.5, or tobacco user) had appreciably higher cost per case (USD 221, 298 and 963) in the three algorithms than the high-risk group (all previous TB cases, all close contacts). (USD 72, 108 and 309) but detected two to four times more TB cases in the population. Using a Chest x-ray as the initial screening tool in the medium risk group cost the most (USD 963), and detected 67% of all the new cases. Using the NTP definition of TB suspects made little difference.ConclusionsTo “End TB”, many more TB cases have to be identified. Screening only the highest risk groups identified under 14% of the undetected cases,. To “End TB”, medium risk groups will need to be screened. Using a CXR for initial screening results in a much higher yield, at what should be an acceptable cost.
Background Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India. Methods We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027–2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses. Results By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 71% (UI: 69–72) and 72% (UI: 70–74), and the PSI vaccine by 31% (UI: 30–32) and 44% (UI: 42–47) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 0.9 million (UI: 0.8–1.1) and 1.1 million (UI: 0.9–1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively. Conclusions Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.
Background China’s national tuberculosis programme does not have cohort wise information regarding attrition and delays in the multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) diagnosis and treatment pathway. Objective Under the Global Fund programmatic management of drug-resistant TB (2006–13), we assessed the attrition and delay in the pathway and the factors associated. Methods Cohort study involving secondary programme data. All patients identified as presumptive MDR-TB (defined as i) previously treated TB patients which included recurrent TB, return after loss to follow up, treatment after failure and ii) new TB patients that were non-converters at three months of treatment or in close contact with a known MDR-TB patient) during October 2006 to June 2013 were eligible for phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST). Pre-diagnosis attrition (presumptive MDR-TB not undergoing culture and DST) and pre-treatment attrition (confirmed MDR-TB patients not initiated on treatment) was calculated. Diagnosis delay was the time interval from DST eligibility to DST result, treatment initiation delay was fom DST result to treatment initiation and total delay was from DST eligbility to treatment initiation. Factors associated with attrition and delay were identified using log binomial regression and linear regression, respectively. Results Of 78 564 presumptive MDR-TB patients, 2 470 (3.1%) underwent pre-diagnosis attrition. Of 9 283 MDR-TB patients, 3 361 (36.2%) underwent pre-treatment attrition. Median(IQR) diagnosis delay was 84 (64, 114) days; treatment initation delay was 23(6,68) days and total delay was 117(77,187) days. Long diagnosis delay was an independent predictor of pre-treatment attrition in a dose response relationship. While pre-treatment attrition was less likely among presumptive criterion ‘previously treated’ and with increasing time period, it was more likey among elderly and in east and west region. While the diagnosis delay increased with time period, treatment initiation delay and total delay reduced with time period. Short diagnosis delay was associated with west region, smear negative patients and presumptive criterion ‘treatment after lost to follow up’. Short treatment initiation delay was associatied with east and west regions while long treatment initiation delay was associated with elderly and presumptive criterion ‘recurrent TB’. Total delay predictors were similar to treatment initiation delay. In addition, short total delay was associated with presumptive criterion ‘treatment after failure’. Conclusion The diagnosis and treatment delay were long and the pre-treatment attrition was considerable high. Long diagnosis delay is likely to predict pre-treatment attrition.
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