Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the most catastrophic eruptions in our solar system, have been known to affect terrestrial environments and infrastructure. However, because their triggering mechanism is still not sufficiently understood, our capacity to predict the occurrence of solar eruptions and to forecast space weather is substantially hindered. Even though various models have been proposed to determine the onset of solar eruptions, the types of magnetic structures capable of triggering these eruptions are still unclear. In this study, we solved this problem by systematically surveying the nonlinear dynamics caused by a wide variety of magnetic structures in terms of three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations. As a result, we determined that two different types of small magnetic structures favor the onset of solar eruptions. These structures, which should appear near the magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL), include magnetic fluxes reversed to the potential component or the nonpotential component of major field on the PIL. In addition, we analyzed two large flares, the X-class flare on December 13, 2006 and the M-class flare on February 13, 2011, using imaging data provided by the Hinode satellite, and we demonstrated that they conform to the simulation predictions. These results suggest that forecasting of solar eruptions is possible with sophisticated observation of a solar magnetic field, although the lead time must be limited by the time scale of changes in the small magnetic structures.

We investigated four major solar flare events that occurred in active regions NOAA 10930 (December 13 and 14, 2006) and NOAA 11158 (February 13 and 15, 2011) by using data observed by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) onboard the Hinode satellite. To reveal the trigger mechanism of solar flares, we analyzed the spatio-temporal correlation between the detailed magnetic field structure and the emission image of the Ca II H line at the central part of flaring regions for several hours prior to the onset of flares. We observed in all the flare events that the magnetic shear angle in the flaring regions exceeded 70 • , as well as that characteristic magnetic disturbances developed at the centers of flaring regions in the pre-flare phase. These magnetic disturbances can be classified into two groups depending on the structure of their magnetic polarity inversion lines; the so-called "Opposite-Polarity" and "Reversed-Shear" magnetic field recently proposed by our group, although the magnetic disturbance in one event of the four samples is too subtle to clearly recognize the detailed structure. The result suggests that some major solar flares are triggered by rather small magnetic disturbances. We also show that the critical size of the flare-trigger field varies among flare events and briefly discuss how the flare-trigger process depends on the evolution of active regions.

Solar flares are highly energetic events in the Sun’s corona that affect Earth’s space weather. The mechanism that drives the onset of solar flares is unknown, hampering efforts to forecast them, which mostly rely on empirical methods. We present the κ-scheme, a physics-based model to predict large solar flares through a critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic instability, triggered by magnetic reconnection. Analysis of the largest (X-class) flares from 2008 to 2019 (during solar cycle 24) shows that the κ-scheme predicts most imminent large solar flares, with a small number of exceptions for confined flares. We conclude that magnetic twist flux density, close to a magnetic polarity inversion line on the solar surface, determines when and where solar flares may occur and how large they can be.

On SOL2017-09-06 solar active region 12673 produced an X9.3 flare which is regarded as largest to occur in solar cycle 24. In this work we have preformed a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation in order to reveal the three-dimensional (3D) dynamics of the magnetic fields associated with the X9.3 solar flare. We first performed an extrapolation of the 3D magnetic field based on the observed photospheric magnetic field prior to the flare and then used it as the initial condition for an MHD simulation. Consequently, the simulation showed a dramatic eruption. In particular, we found that a large coherent flux rope composed of highly twisted magnetic field lines is formed during the eruption. A series of small flux ropes are found to lie along a magnetic polarity inversion line prior to the flare. Reconnection occurring between each small flux rope during the early stages of the eruption forms the large and highly twisted flux rope. Furthermore, we found a writhing motion of the erupting flux rope. The understanding of these dynamics is important in increasing the accuracy of space weather forecasting. We report on the detailed dynamics of the 3D eruptive flux rope and discuss the possible mechanisms of the writhing motion.