A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares

Kusano, K.; Iju, Tomoya; Bamba, Yumi; Inoue, Satoshi

doi:10.1126/science.aaz2511

Cited by 95 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Longer‐term SEP forecasts would first and foremost depend on understanding and predicting solar activity more generally. Recently, progress has been made in flare forecasting (e.g., Chen & Wang, 2020, Kusano et al., 2020. X. Wang et al., 2020), and it is expected that with machine learning patterns leading up to eruptions (flares and CMEs) can be recognized even more reliably.…”

Section: An L4 Mission That Is Critical For Human Explorationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi‐Purpose Heliophysics L4 Mission

Posner¹,

Arge

Staub

et al. 2021

Space Weather

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The Earth-Sun Lagrangian point 4 is a meta-stable location at 1 au from the Sun, 60° ahead of Earth's orbit. It has an uninterrupted view of the solar photosphere centered on W60, the Earth's nominal magnetic field connection to the Sun. Such a mission on its own would serve as a solar remote sensing observatory that would oversee the entire solar radiation hemisphere with significant relevance for protecting Moon and Mars explorers from radiation exposure. In combination with appropriately planned observatories at L1 and L5, the three spacecraft would provide 300° longitude coverage of photospheric magnetic field structure, and allow continuous viewing of both solar poles, with >3.6° elevation. Ideally, the L4 and L5 missions would orbit the Sun with a 7.2° inclination out of the heliographic equator, 14.5° out of the ecliptic plane. We discuss the impact of extending solar magnetic field observations in both longitude and latitude to improve global solar wind modeling and, with the development of local helioseismology, the potential for long-term solar activity forecasting. Such a mission would provide a unique opportunity for interplanetary and interstellar dust science. It would significantly add to reliability of operational observations on fast coronal mass ejections directed at Earth and for human Mars explorers on their round-trip journey. The L4 mission concept is technically feasible, and is scientifically compelling. Section 1: IntroductionSpace weather (SWx) forecasting is a complex problem, spanning vastly different regions of space and involving several scientific disciplines within and beyond Heliophysics. The main pillar that all SWx forecasts rely on is rapid availability of sets of observations of the Sun and inner heliosphere measured on the ground and on space platforms. Budgetary realism dictates the locations of observatories and their instrumentation to be chosen carefully so they address short-term needs and lead to long-term improvements.It is important to note that much of the underlying physics of space weather is not yet understood. This includes, to name just a subset of phenomena, the initiation of flares and coronal mass ejections, the acceleration of the solar wind and that of particles to high energies. At the time of writing, the Parker Accepted ArticleThis article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as

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Section: An L4 Mission That Is Critical For Human Explorationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi‐Purpose Heliophysics L4 Mission

Posner¹,

Arge

Staub

et al. 2021

Space Weather

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…It is still a difficult part to realistically model this procedure from the solar interior to solar surface and to use it for prediction of sunspot evolution. Zhang et al (2021) and as shown by e.g., Bamba and Kusano (2018) and Kusano et al (2020). However, this topic is still a challenging key topic during the PRESTO interval.…”

Section: Future Topic For Predictability Of Solar-terrestrial Couplingmentioning

confidence: 98%

A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact

Shiokawa

Georgieva

2021

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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The Sun is a variable active-dynamo star, emitting radiation in all wavelengths and solar-wind plasma to the interplanetary space. The Earth is immersed in this radiation and solar wind, showing various responses in geospace and atmosphere. This Sun–Earth connection variates in time scales from milli-seconds to millennia and beyond. The solar activity, which has a ~11-year periodicity, is gradually declining in recent three solar cycles, suggesting a possibility of a grand minimum in near future. VarSITI—variability of the Sun and its terrestrial impact—was the 5-year program of the scientific committee on solar-terrestrial physics (SCOSTEP) in 2014–2018, focusing on this variability of the Sun and its consequences on the Earth. This paper reviews some background of SCOSTEP and its past programs, achievements of the 5-year VarSITI program, and remaining outstanding questions after VarSITI.

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“…onset. A considerable work forward has however made in recent years in this topic using empirical predictors (e.g., 125 Kontogiannis et al, 2018), machine learning (Florios et al, 2018) and physics-based approaches (Kusano et al, 2020).…”

Section: Predictability Of Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Flares 105mentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability of the variable solar-terrestrial coupling

Daglis¹,

Chang²,

Dasso³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. In October 2017, the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) Bureau established a committee for the design of SCOSTEP's Next Scientific Program (NSP). The NSP committee members and authors of this paper, decided from the very beginning of their deliberations that the predictability of the Sun-Earth System from a few hours to centuries is a timely scientific topic, combining the interests of different topical communities in a relevant way. Accordingly, the NSP was christened PRESTO – Predictability of the variable Solar-Terrestrial coupling. This paper presents a detailed account of PRESTO; we show the key milestones of the PRESTO roadmap for the next five years, review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar-terrestrial physics.

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A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares

Cited by 95 publications

References 41 publications

A Multi‐Purpose Heliophysics L4 Mission

A Multi‐Purpose Heliophysics L4 Mission

A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact

Predictability of the variable solar-terrestrial coupling

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