Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods:A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in 8 countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results:If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as result of a shrinking population.However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as result of an aging/increasing population.Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed.If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and 4 NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.Lay summary: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) can lead to advanced liver disease, and are occurring in increasing numbers in tandem with epidemics of obesity and diabetes. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with NAFLD and NASH will change over time. Results suggest increasing numbers of cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years. 5 BACKGROUNDNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of liver disease globally [1][2][3]. This condition is characterized by excess liver fat in the absence of other causes such as alcohol consumption [4,5]. Obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are consistently identified as the most important risk factors for NAFLD [4,6].In order to classify the population, NAFLD may be divided into two groups: NAFL (steatosis only) or NASH (nonalcoholic steatohepatitis), where steatosis is accompanied by inflammation and ballooning. NASH frequently progresses to liver fibrosis [7] that is the main risk factor for liver-related mortality [8]. Odds of progression to advanced liver disease, including hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), are higher among those with NASH compared to those with NAFL [7]. Increasing age, obesity, DM and the presence of NASH have been consistently identified as risk factors for progression to cirrhosis [6,9].There is a...

MRE and PDFF methods have higher diagnostic performance in noninvasive detection of liver fibrosis and steatosis in patients with NAFLD than TE and CAP methods. MRI-based noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis and steatosis is a potential alternative to liver biopsy in clinical practice. UMIN Clinical Trials Registry No. UMIN000012757.

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Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is the most rapidly growing cause of HCC among US patients listed for liver transplantation.

The prevalence of NAFLD has increased in the general population, especially in males. There is a linear relationship between the prevalence of NAFLD and various metabolic parameters, even in nonobese subjects. The prevalence of NASH with advanced fibrosis is estimated to be considerably high in subjects with NAFLD.

The severity of fatty liver was positively correlated with visceral fat accumulation and insulin resistance in both obese and nonobese subjects, suggesting that hepatic fat infiltration in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease may be influenced by visceral fat accumulation regardless of body mass index.

BackgroundA reliable and inexpensive noninvasive marker of hepatic fibrosis is required in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). FIB4 index (based on age, aspartate aminotransferase [AST] and alanine aminotransferase [ALT] levels, and platelet counts) is expected to be useful for evaluating hepatic fibrosis. We validated the performance of FIB4 index in a Japanese cohort with NAFLD.MethodsThe areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) for FIB4 and six other markers were compared, based on data from 576 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients. Advanced fibrosis was defined as stage 3-4 fibrosis. FIB4 index was assessed as: age (yr) × AST (IU/L)/(platelet count (109/L) × √ALT (IU/L))ResultsAdvanced fibrosis was found in 64 (11%) patients. The AUROC for FIB4 index was superior to those for the other scoring systems for differentiating between advanced and mild fibrosis. Only 6 of 308 patients with a FIB4 index below the proposed low cut-off point (< 1.45) were under-staged, giving a high negative predictive value of 98%. Twenty-eight of 59 patients with a FIB4 index above the high cut-off point (> 3.25) were over-staged, giving a low positive predictive value of 53%. Using these cutoffs, 91% of the 395 patients with FIB-4 values outside 1.45-3.25 would be correctly classified. Implementation of the FIB4 index in the Japanese population would avoid 58% of liver biopsies.ConclusionThe FIB4 index was superior to other tested noninvasive markers of fibrosis in Japanese patients with NAFLD, with a high negative predictive value for excluding advanced fibrosis. The small number of cases of advanced fibrosis in this cohort meant that this study had limited power for validating the high cut-off point.

The programmed cell death 4 (PDCD4) gene was originally identified as a tumor-related gene in humans and acts as a tumor-suppressor in mouse epidermal carcinoma cells. However, its function and regulatory mechanisms of expression in human cancer remain to be elucidated. We therefore investigated the expression of PDCD4 in human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the role of PDCD4 in human HCC cells. Downregulation of PDCD4 protein was observed in all HCC tissues tested compared with corresponding noncancerous liver, as revealed by Western blotting or immunohistochemical staining. Human HCC cell line, Huh7, transfected with PDCD4 cDNA showed nuclear fragmentation and DNA laddering characteristic of apoptotic cells associated with mitochondrial changes and caspase activation. Transforming growth factor-b1 (TGF-b1) treatment of Huh7 cells resulted in increased PDCD4 expression and occurrence of apoptosis, also concomitant with mitochondrial events and caspase activation. Transfection of Smad7, a known antagonist to TGF-b1 signaling, protected cells from TGF-b1-mediated apoptosis and suppressed TGF-b1-induced PDCD4 expression. Moreover, antisense PDCD4 transfectants were resistant to apoptosis induced by TGF-b1. In conclusion, these data suggest that PDCD4 is a proapoptotic molecule involved in TGF-b1-induced apoptosis in human HCC cells, and a possible tumor suppressor in hepatocarcinogenesis.