We derive mathematical expressions for the mean number of casualties resulting from a deliberate release of a biological or chemical agent into a food supply chain. Our analysis first computes the amount of contaminated food as a function of the network topology and vessel sizes in the food processing plant. A probabilistic analysis, in which each potential consumer of contaminated food has his own random purchase time, infectious dose, and incubation period, determines the number of people who consume enough tainted food to get infected or poisoned before the attack is detected and food consumption is halted. These simple formulas can be used by the U.S. government and the food industry to develop a rough-cut prioritization of the threats from food terrorism, which would be a 1st step toward the allocation of appropriate prevention and mitigation resources.
Each state in the U.S.A. is required to develop and maintain a risk-based transportation asset management plan for the National Highway System (NHS) to improve or preserve the condition of the assets and the performance of the system. Awareness of natural hazards and extreme weather events has also increased with recent catastrophic hurricanes, such as Matthew (October, 2016) and Harvey (August, 2017), which caused significant inland floods in Robeson County, North Carolina, and Houston, Texas, respectively. These recent events and the damage to transportation infrastructure has also focused attention on the resilience of transportation networks. However, an integrated, consistent, well-understood method to assess or quantify the resilience of transportation networks is still lacking. This paper reviews the relevant concepts, legislative requirements that link asset management, risk and resilience, and tools available to support risk-based asset management. Based on a review of the transportation asset management plans developed by 49 state departments of transportation in 2018 and 2019, the paper summarizes the approaches to the risk management section of these asset management plans and the role resilience plays. Opportunities to better integrate resilience into the risk-based asset management plans are then identified. Examples are presented that demonstrate the role of resilience-related technical performance measures that reflect decisions related to flooding in the various stages of the disaster cycle (preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation).
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