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Climate models often predict that more extreme precipitation events will occur in arid and semiarid regions, where plant phenology is particularly sensitive to precipitation changes. To understand how increases in precipitation affect plant phenology, this study conducted a manipulative field experiment in a desert ecosystem of northwest China. In this study, a long-term in situ water addition experiment was conducted in a temperate desert in northwestern China. The following five treatments were used: natural rain plus an additional 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100% of the local mean annual precipitation. A series of phenological events, including leaf unfolding (onset, 30%, 50%, and end of leaf unfolding), cessation of new branch elongation (30, 50, and 90%), and leaf coloration (80% of leaves turned yellow), of the locally dominant shrub Nitraria tangutorum were observed from 2012 to 2018. The results showed that on average, over the seven-year-study and in all treatments water addition treatments advanced the spring phenology (30% of leaf unfolding) by 1.29-3.00 days, but delayed the autumn phenology (80% of leaves turned yellow) by 1.18-11.82 days. Therefore, the length of the growing season was prolonged by 2.11-13.68 days, and autumn phenology contributed more than spring phenology. In addition, water addition treatments delayed the cessation of new branch elongation (90%) by 5.82-12.61 days, and nonlinear relationships were found between the leaves yellowing (80% of leaves) and the amount of watering. Linear relationships were found between the cessation of new branch elongation (90%), the length of the growing season, and amount of water addition. The two response patterns to water increase indicated that predictions of phenological events in the future should not be based on one trend only.

Plant phenology is the most sensitive biological indicator that responds to climate change. Many climate models predict that extreme precipitation events will occur frequently in the arid areas of northwest China in the future, with an increase in the quantity and unpredictability of rain. Future changes in precipitation will inevitably have a profound impact on plant phenology in arid areas. A recent study has shown that after the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the end time of the leaf unfolding period of Nitraria tangutorum advanced, and the end time of leaf senescence was delayed. Under extreme climatic conditions, such as extremely dry or wet years, it is unclear whether the influence of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the phenology of N. tangutorum remains stable. To solve this problem, this study systematically analyzed the effects of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the start, end and duration of four phenological events of N. tangutorum, including leaf budding, leaf unfolding, leaf senescence and leaf fall under extremely dry and wet conditions. The aim of this study was to clarify the similarities and differences of the effects of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the start, end and duration of each phenological period of N. tangutorum in an extremely dry and an extremely wet year to reveal the regulatory effect of extremely dry and excessive amounts of precipitation on the phenology of N. tangutorum. (1) After the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the start and end times of the spring phenology (leaf budding and leaf unfolding) of N. tangutorum advanced during an extremely dry and an extremely wet year, but the duration of phenology was shortened during an extremely wet year and prolonged during an extremely drought-stricken year. The amplitude of variation increased with the increase in simulated precipitation. (2) After the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the start and end times of the phenology (leaf senescence and leaf fall) of N. tangutorum during the autumn advanced in an extremely wet year but was delayed during an extremely dry year, and the duration of phenology was prolonged in both extremely dry and wet years. The amplitude of variation increased with the increase in simulated precipitation. (3) The regulation mechanism of extremely dry or wet years on the spring phenology of N. tangutorum lay in the different degree of influence on the start and end times of leaf budding and leaf unfolding. However, the regulation mechanism of extremely dry or wet years on the autumn phenology of N. tangutorum lay in different reasons. Water stress caused by excessive water forced N. tangutorum to start its leaf senescence early during an extremely wet year. In contrast, the alleviation of drought stress after watering during the senescence of N. tangutorum caused a delay in the autumn phenology during an extremely dry year.