Motivated by the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 due to human activities since the Industrial Revolution, several international scientific research programs have analyzed the role of individual components of the Earth system in the global carbon cycle. Our knowledge of the carbon cycle within the oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere is sufficiently extensive to permit us to conclude that although natural processes can potentially slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2, there is no natural "savior" waiting to assimilate all the anthropogenically produced CO2 in the coming century. Our knowledge is insufficient to describe the interactions between the components of the Earth system and the relationship between the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical and climatological processes. Overcoming this limitation requires a systems approach.

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Phytoplankton is a nineteenth century ecological construct for a biologically diverse group of pelagic photoautotrophs that share common metabolic functions but not evolutionary histories. In contrast to terrestrial plants, a major schism occurred in the evolution of the eukaryotic phytoplankton that gave rise to two major plastid superfamilies. The green superfamily appropriated chlorophyll b, whereas the red superfamily uses chlorophyll c as an accessory photosynthetic pigment. Fossil evidence suggests that the green superfamily dominated Palaeozoic oceans. However, after the end-Permian extinction, members of the red superfamily rose to ecological prominence. The processes responsible for this shift are obscure. Here we present an analysis of major nutrients and trace elements in 15 species of marine phytoplankton from the two superfamilies. Our results indicate that there are systematic phylogenetic differences in the two plastid types where macronutrient (carbon:nitrogen:phosphorus) stoichiometries primarily reflect ancestral pre-symbiotic host cell phenotypes, but trace element composition reflects differences in the acquired plastids. The compositional differences between the two plastid superfamilies suggest that changes in ocean redox state strongly influenced the evolution and selection of eukaryotic phytoplankton since the Proterozoic era.

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A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198-1201. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.global temperature | Holocene temperature | model-data inconsistency I n the latest reconstruction of the global surface temperature throughout the Holocene (1) (hereafter M13), the most striking feature is a pronounced cooling trend of ∼0.5°C following the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) (∼10-6 ka) toward the late Holocene, with the Neoglacial cooling culminating in the Little Ice Age (LIA; ∼1,800 common era) (Fig. 1, blue). Numerous previous reconstructions have shown cooling trends in the Holocene, but most of these studies attribute the cooling trend to regional and/or seasonal climate changes (2-6). The distinct feature of the M13 reconstruction is that it arguably infers the cooling trend in the global mean and annual mean temperature. This inferred global annual cooling in the Holocene is puzzling: With no direct net contribution from the orbital insolation, the global annual mean radiative forcing in the Holocene should be dominated by the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), with both favoring a globally averaged warming. Therefore, how can the global annual temperature exhibit a cooling trend in response to global warming forcing? This inconsistency between the reconstructed cooling and the inferred warming forced by GHGs and ice sheet poses the so-called Holocene temperature conundrum and will be the subject of this study. Here, we study the global annual temperature trend in the Holocene and its physical mechanism by comparing the temperature reconstruction with three different transient climate model simulations. Our analysis shows a robust warming trend in current climate models, opposite from the cooling in the M13 reconstruction. This model-data discrepancy suggests potentially significant biases in both the reconstructions and current climate models, and calls for a major reexamination of global climate evolution in the Holocene. Model ExperimentsWe analyzed transient climate simulations in three coupled ocean-atmosphere models [Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) (7), Fast Met Office/UK Universities Simulator (FAMOUS) (8), and Loch-Vecode-Ecbilt-Clio-Agism Model (LOVECLIM) (9); Methods] that are subject to realistic climate forcings of orbitally driven insolation variations, GHGs, continental ice sheets, and the associated meltwater fluxes. The three models all simulate a robust annual mean warming (∼0.5°C) throughout ...

Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions suggest that the late twentieth century was warmer than any other time during the past 500 years and possibly any time during the past 1,300 years (refs 1, 2). These temperature reconstructions are based largely on terrestrial records from extra-tropical or high-elevation sites; however, global average surface temperature changes closely follow those of the global tropics, which are 75% ocean. In particular, the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) represents a major heat reservoir that both influences global atmospheric circulation and responds to remote northern high-latitude forcings. Here we present a decadally resolved continuous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from the IPWP that spans the past two millennia and overlaps the instrumental record, enabling both a direct comparison of proxy data to the instrumental record and an evaluation of past changes in the context of twentieth century trends. Our record from the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, exhibits trends that are similar to a recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Reconstructed SST was, however, within error of modern values from about ad 1000 to ad 1250, towards the end of the Medieval Warm Period. SSTs during the Little Ice Age (approximately ad 1550-1850) were variable, and approximately 0.5 to 1 degrees C colder than modern values during the coldest intervals. A companion reconstruction of delta(18)O of sea water-a sea surface salinity and hydrology indicator-indicates a tight coupling with the East Asian monsoon system and remote control of IPWP hydrology on centennial-millennial timescales, rather than a dominant influence from local SST variation.

The Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) climate transition (ca. 34 Ma) marks a period of Antarctic ice growth and a major step from early Cenozoic greenhouse conditions toward today's glaciated climate state. The transition is represented by an increase in deep-sea benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) values occurring in two main steps that refl ect the temperature and δ 18 O of seawater. Existing benthic Mg/Ca paleotemperature records do not display a cooling across the transition, possibly refl ecting a saturation state effect on benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios at deep-water sites. Here we present data from exceptionally well preserved foraminifera deposited well above the calcite compensation depth that provide the fi rst proxy evidence for an ~2.5 °C ocean cooling associated with the ice growth. This permits interpretation of E-O δ 18 O records without invoking Northern Hemisphere continental-scale ice.

Earth has undergone profound changes since the late Pliocene, which led to the development [approximately 2.7 million years ago (Ma)] and intensification (approximately 0.9 Ma) of large-scale Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, recorded as transitions in the benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope (delta18Ob) record. Here we present an orbitally resolved record of deep ocean temperature derived from benthic foraminiferal magnesium/calcium ratios from the North Atlantic, which shows that temperature variations are a substantial portion of the global delta18Ob signal. The record shows two distinct cooling events associated with the late Pliocene (LPT, 2.5 to 3 Ma) and mid-Pleistocene (MPT, 1.2 to 0.85 Ma) climate transitions. Whereas the LPT increase in ice volume is attributed directly to global cooling, the shift to 100,000-year cycles at the MPT is more likely to be a response to an additional change in ice-sheet dynamics.