Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions suggest that the late twentieth century was warmer than any other time during the past 500 years and possibly any time during the past 1,300 years (refs 1, 2). These temperature reconstructions are based largely on terrestrial records from extra-tropical or high-elevation sites; however, global average surface temperature changes closely follow those of the global tropics, which are 75% ocean. In particular, the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) represents a major heat reservoir that both influences global atmospheric circulation and responds to remote northern high-latitude forcings. Here we present a decadally resolved continuous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from the IPWP that spans the past two millennia and overlaps the instrumental record, enabling both a direct comparison of proxy data to the instrumental record and an evaluation of past changes in the context of twentieth century trends. Our record from the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, exhibits trends that are similar to a recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Reconstructed SST was, however, within error of modern values from about ad 1000 to ad 1250, towards the end of the Medieval Warm Period. SSTs during the Little Ice Age (approximately ad 1550-1850) were variable, and approximately 0.5 to 1 degrees C colder than modern values during the coldest intervals. A companion reconstruction of delta(18)O of sea water-a sea surface salinity and hydrology indicator-indicates a tight coupling with the East Asian monsoon system and remote control of IPWP hydrology on centennial-millennial timescales, rather than a dominant influence from local SST variation.
Coupled climate-carbon simulations indicate minor global effects of wars and epidemics on atmospheric CO 2 between AD 800 and 1850. Holocene 21, 843-851 (2011). 22. Wahl, E. R. & Smerdon, J. E. Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06703 (2012). 23. Neukom, R. et al. Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries.
We present a 271-year record of Sr/Ca variability in a coral from Rarotonga in the South Pacific gyre. Calibration with monthly sea surface temperature (SST) from satellite and ship measurements made in a grid measuring 1 degrees by 1 degrees over the period from 1981 to 1997 indicates that this Sr/Ca record is an excellent proxy for SST. Comparison with SST from ship measurements made since 1950 in a grid measuring 5 degrees by 5 degrees also shows that the Sr/Ca data accurately record decadal changes in SST. The entire Sr/Ca record back to 1726 shows a distinct pattern of decadal variability, with repeated decadal and interdecadal SST regime shifts greater than 0. 75 degrees C. Comparison with decadal climate variability in the North Pacific, as represented by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (1900-1997), indicates that several of the largest decadal-scale SST variations at Rarotonga are coherent with SST regime shifts in the North Pacific. This hemispheric symmetry suggests that tropical forcing may be an important factor in at least some of the decadal variability observed in the Pacific Ocean.
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