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Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

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In many least developed countries, inadequate user willingness to pay (WTP) to achieve cost recovery for improvements to substandard rural water services is a major barrier to reaching targets such as the Millennium Development Goals. A meta‐analysis of 21 contingent valuation studies conducted in least developed countries reveals that cost recovery from user demand is infeasible in most cases, and that rural areas are especially unwilling to pay enough to finance water service improvements. We argue that this is largely due to inability to pay cash rather than an absence of demand and propose two alternative financing approaches that may enable capital deficient communities to afford improvements. A discrete choice experiment, conducted in a rural catchment of Zambia, compares conventional cash‐based WTP for different water service attributes with two alternative measures. (1) Willingness to borrow: Monthly payments in cash, with a no‐interest loan given to the user. (2) Willingness to work: Instead of cash, payment in the form of contributing time devoted to unskilled labor. To different degrees, these alternatives elicit higher demand and enable cost recovery, providing evidence that demand‐driven, economically sustainable water development efforts, as described here for Simango, Zambia, may be implemented for rural, resource‐poor communities.