Objective Primary studies and systematic reviews provide estimates of varying accuracy for different factors in the prediction of pre‐eclampsia. The aim of this study was to review published systematic reviews to collate evidence on the ability of available tests to predict pre‐eclampsia, to identify high‐value avenues for future research and to minimize future research waste in this field. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library including DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects) databases, from database inception to March 2017, and bibliographies of relevant articles were searched, without language restrictions, for systematic reviews and meta‐analyses on the prediction of pre‐eclampsia. The quality of the included reviews was assessed using the AMSTAR tool and a modified version of the QUIPS tool. We evaluated the comprehensiveness of search, sample size, tests and outcomes evaluated, data synthesis methods, predictive ability estimates, risk of bias related to the population studied, measurement of predictors and outcomes, study attrition and adjustment for confounding. Results From 2444 citations identified, 126 reviews were included, reporting on over 90 predictors and 52 prediction models for pre‐eclampsia. Around a third (n = 37 (29.4%)) of all reviews investigated solely biochemical markers for predicting pre‐eclampsia, 31 (24.6%) investigated genetic associations with pre‐eclampsia, 46 (36.5%) reported on clinical characteristics, four (3.2%) evaluated only ultrasound markers and six (4.8%) studied a combination of tests; two (1.6%) additional reviews evaluated primary studies investigating any screening test for pre‐eclampsia. Reviews included between two and 265 primary studies, including up to 25 356 688 women in the largest review. Only approximately half (n = 67 (53.2%)) of the reviews assessed the quality of the included studies. There was a high risk of bias in many of the included reviews, particularly in relation to population representativeness and study attrition. Over 80% (n = 106 (84.1%)) summarized the findings using meta‐analysis. Thirty‐two (25.4%) studies lacked a formal statement on funding. The predictors with the best test performance were body mass index (BMI) > 35 kg/m2, with a specificity of 92% (95% CI, 89–95%) and a sensitivity of 21% (95% CI, 12–31%); BMI > 25 kg/m2, with a specificity of 73% (95% CI, 64–83%) and a sensitivity of 47% (95% CI, 33–61%); first‐trimester uterine artery pulsatility index or resistance index > 90th centile (specificity 93% (95% CI, 90–96%) and sensitivity 26% (95% CI, 23–31%)); placental growth factor (specificity 89% (95% CI, 89–89%) and sensitivity 65% (95% CI, 63–67%)); and placental protein 13 (specificity 88% (95% CI, 87–89%) and sensitivity 37% (95% CI, 33–41%)). No single marker had a test performance suitable for routine clinical use. Models combining markers showed promise, but none had undergone external validation. Conclusions This review of reviews calls into question the need for further aggregate meta‐analy...

To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.

Objective: Our aim was to evaluate whether Doppler changes in the fetal middle cerebral (MCA) and umbilical arteries (UA) suggesting fetal hypoxemia precede the onset of spontaneous preterm birth (PTB). Methods: We studied 2,340 appropriate-for-gestational-age singleton pregnancies that had MCA and UA pulsatility indices (PI) recorded at 28-32 weeks. Values including the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) were converted into multiples of the median and evaluated according to both gestational age at the onset of labor and the interval between ultrasound and labor. ROC analysis was used to calculate the ability in the prediction of spontaneous PTB before 32, 34 and 37 weeks' gestation. Results: While no correlations were observed for the UA PI and CPR, lower MCA PI values were associated with an earlier onset of labor (p < 0.001) and a shorter ultrasound-labor interval (p = 0.028). The ROC analysis at different gestational ages and intervals to labor indicated that MCA PI values were poorly predictive of spontaneous PTB (all areas under the curve <0.7). Conclusions: Low MCA PI values at 28-32 weeks are associated with subsequent spontaneous PTB, indicating that fetal hypoxemia unrelated with placental disease might be implicated in the onset of labor. This association, however, is unlikely to be useful in the prediction of PTB.

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Background This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score‐matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score‐matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery. Results A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score‐matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498). Conclusion There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast‐induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast‐enhanced CT.

The peri-operative use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers is thought to be associated with an increased risk of postoperative acute kidney injury. To reduce this risk, these agents are commonly withheld during the peri-operative period. This study aimed to investigate if withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers peri-operatively reduces the risk of acute kidney injury following major non-cardiac surgery. Patients undergoing elective major surgery on the gastrointestinal tract and/or the liver were eligible for inclusion in this prospective study. The primary outcome was the development of acute kidney injury within seven days of operation. Adjusted multi-level models were used to account for centre-level effects and propensity score matching was used to reduce the effects of selection bias between treatment groups. A total of 949 patients were included from 160 centres across the UK and Republic of Ireland. From this population, 573 (60.4%) patients had their angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers withheld during the peri-operative period. One hundred and seventy-five (18.4%) patients developed acute kidney injury; there was no difference in the incidence of acute kidney injury between patients who had their angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers continued or withheld (107 (18.7%) vs. 68 (18.1%), respectively; p = 0.914). Following propensity matching, withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-2 receptor blockers did not demonstrate a protective effect against the development of postoperative acute kidney injury (OR (95%CI) 0.89 (0.58-1.34); p = 0.567).

IntroductionThe mainstay of treatment for idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) includes oral steroids, intratympanic steroid injections or a combination of both. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, in their recent hearing loss guidelines, highlighted the paucity of evidence assessing the comparative effectiveness of these treatments; and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment Programme has since released a commissioned call for a trial to identify the most effective route of administration of steroids as a first-line treatment for idiopathic SSNHL. For such trials to be run effectively, reliable information is needed on patients with SSNHL: where they present, numbers, demographics, treatment pathways, as well as outcomes. This study will collect these data in a nationwide cohort study of patients presenting with SSNHL across 97 National Health Service (NHS) trusts. The study will be delivered through ear, nose and throat (ENT) trainee networks, the NIHR Clinical Research Network (CRN) Audiology Champions and the NIHR CRN. Importantly, this study will also provide a dataset to develop a prognostic model to predict recovery for patients with idiopathic SSNHL. The study objectives are to: (1) map the patient pathway and identify the characteristics of adult patients presenting to NHS ENT and hearing services with SSNHL, (2) develop a prognostic model to predict recovery for patients with idiopathic SSNHL and (3) establish the impact of idiopathic SSNHL on patients’ quality of life (QoL).Methods and analysisStudy design: national multicentre prospective cohort study across 97 NHS trusts.Inclusion criteria: adult patients presenting to NHS ENT and hearing services with SSNHL.Outcomes: change in auditory function; change in QoL score.Analysis: multivariable prognostic model, using prespecified candidate predictors. Mean change in QoL scores will be calculated from initial presentation to follow-up.Ethics and disseminationHealth Research Authority and NHS Research Ethics Committee approved the study. Publication will be on behalf of study sites and collaborators.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04108598).

Background Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of major gastrointestinal surgery with an impact on short- and long-term survival. No validated system for risk stratification exists for this patient group. This study aimed to validate externally a prognostic model for AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery in two multicentre cohort studies. Methods The Outcomes After Kidney injury in Surgery (OAKS) prognostic model was developed to predict risk of AKI in the 7 days after surgery using six routine datapoints (age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker). Validation was performed within two independent cohorts: a prospective multicentre, international study (‘IMAGINE’) of patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery (2018); and a retrospective regional cohort study (‘Tayside’) in major abdominal surgery (2011–2015). Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict risk of AKI, with multiple imputation used to account for data missing at random. Prognostic accuracy was assessed for patients at high risk (greater than 20 per cent) of postoperative AKI. Results In the validation cohorts, 12.9 per cent of patients (661 of 5106) in IMAGINE and 14.7 per cent (106 of 719 patients) in Tayside developed 7-day postoperative AKI. Using the OAKS model, 558 patients (9.6 per cent) were classified as high risk. Less than 10 per cent of patients classified as low-risk developed AKI in either cohort (negative predictive value greater than 0.9). Upon external validation, the OAKS model retained an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve of range 0.655–0.681 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.596 to 0.714; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.659 to 0.703), sensitivity values range 0.323–0.352 (IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.281 to 0.368; Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.253 to 0.461), and specificity range 0.881–0.890 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.853 to 0.905; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.881 to 0.899). Conclusion The OAKS prognostic model can identify patients who are not at high risk of postoperative AKI after gastrointestinal surgery with high specificity. Presented to Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) International Conference 2018 (Edinburgh, UK), European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) International Conference 2018 (Nice, France), SARS (Society of Academic and Research Surgery) 2020 (Virtual, UK).