BackgroundRisk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increased in metabolically obese but normal-weight people. However, we have limited knowledge of how to prevent T2DM in normal-weight people. We aimed to evaluate the association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and incident T2DM among normal-weight people in rural China.MethodsWe included data from 5706 people with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5–23.9 kg/m2) without baseline T2DM in a rural Chinese cohort followed for a median of 6.0 years. A Cox proportional-hazard model was used to assess the risk of incident T2DM by quartiles of TyG index and difference in TyG index between follow-up and baseline (TyG-D), estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A generalized additive plot was used to show the nonparametric smoothed exposure–response association between risk of T2DM and TyG index as a continuous variable. TyG was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride level (mg/dl) × fasting plasma glucose level (mg/dl)/2].ResultsRisk of incident T2DM was increased with quartiles 2, 3 and 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG index (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.48 [95% CI 1.20–5.11], 3.77 [1.83–7.79], and 5.30 [2.21–12.71], P trend < 0.001 across quartiles of TyG index). Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartile 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG-D (aHR 3.91 [2.22–6.87]). The results were consistent when analyses were restricted to participants without baseline metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose level. The generalized additive plot showed cumulative increased risk of T2DM with increasing TyG index.ConclusionsRisk of incident T2DM is increased with increasing TyG index among rural Chinese people, so the index might be an important indicator for identifying people at high risk of T2DM.

Despite the inverse association between physical activity (PA) and incident hypertension, a comprehensive assessment of the quantitative dose-response association between PA and hypertension has not been reported. We performed a meta-analysis, including dose-response analysis, to quantitatively evaluate this association. We searched PubMed and Embase databases for articles published up to November 1, 2016. Random effects generalized least squares regression models were used to assess the quantitative association between PA and hypertension risk across studies. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose-response association. We identified 22 articles (29 studies) investigating the risk of hypertension with leisure-time PA or total PA, including 330 222 individuals and 67 698 incident cases of hypertension. The risk of hypertension was reduced by 6% (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.96) with each 10 metabolic equivalent of task h/wk increment of leisure-time PA. We found no evidence of a nonlinear dose-response association of PA and hypertension (=0.094 for leisure-time PA and 0.771 for total PA). With the linear cubic spline model, when compared with inactive individuals, for those who met the guidelines recommended minimum level of moderate PA (10 metabolic equivalent of task h/wk), the risk of hypertension was reduced by 6% (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.97). This meta-analysis suggests that additional benefits for hypertension prevention occur as the amount of PA increases.

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In most countries, the demand for integrated care for people with chronic diseases is increasing as the population ages. This demand requires a fundamental shift of health-care systems towards more integrated service delivery models. To achieve this shift in China, the World Health Organization, the World Bank and the Chinese government proposed a tiered health-care delivery system in accordance with a people-centred integrated care model. The approach was pioneered in Luohu district of Shenzhen city from 2015 to 2017 as a template for practice. In September 2017, China’s health ministry introduced this approach to people-centred integrated care to the entire country. We describe the features of the Luohu model in relation to the core action areas and implementation strategies proposed and we summarize data from an evaluation of the first two years of the programme. We discuss the challenges faced during implementation and the lessons learnt from it for other health-care systems. We consider how to improve collaboration between institutions, how to change the population’s behaviour about using community health services as the first point of contact and how to manage resources effectively to avoid budget deficits. Finally, we outline next steps of the Luohu model and its potential application to strengthen health care in other urban health-care systems.

Background The evidence of the association between Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is limited. We explored the association of CVAI with T2DM and directly compared with the predictive power of CVAI with other visceral obesity indices (visceral adiposity index, waist to height ratio, waist circumference and body mass index) based on a large prospective study. Methods We conducted a population‐based study of 12 237 Chinese participants. Cox proportional‐hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between CVAI and T2DM. Results During follow‐up (median: 6.01 years), the incidence of T2DM was 3.29, 7.34, 12.37 and 23.72 per 1000 person‐years for quartiles 1, 2, 3 and 4 of CVAI, respectively. The risk of T2DM was increased with quartiles 2, 3 and 4 vs quartile 1 of CVAI (HR 2.12 [95% CI 1.50‐3.00], 2.94 [2.10‐4.13] and 5.01 [3.57‐7.04], Ptrend < 0.001). Per‐SD increase in CVAI was associated with a 72% increased risk of T2DM (HR 1.72 [95% CI 1.56‐1.88]). Sensitivity analyses did not alter the association. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly higher for CVAI than other visceral obesity indices (all P <.001). Similar results were observed in stratified analyses by sex. Conclusions Our findings show a positive association between CVAI and risk of T2DM. CVAI has the best performance in predicting incident T2DM, so the index might be a reliable and applicable indicator identifying people at high risk of T2DM.

Objective: The evidence between age at menarche and mortality risk is controversial. We aimed to quantify the dose–response association of age at menarche and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality based on cohort studies. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus databases were searched up to March 15, 2018 for relevant articles. Random-effects models and restricted cubic splines were used for this meta-analysis. Results: Twelve cohort studies, with 79,363 deaths and 2,341,769 participants, met the inclusion criteria. With each 1-year increase in menarche age, the relative risk (RR) was reduced for all-cause mortality (RR: 0.977, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.970-0.984), CVD mortality (RR: 0.993, 95% CI: 0.975-1.011), ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality (RR: 0.969, 95% CI: 0.947-0.993), and stroke mortality (RR: 0.983, 95% CI: 0.954-1.012). We found a nonlinear dose–response association (P nonlinearity = 0.001) between age at menarche and all-cause mortality, with the lowest risk observed at menarche age 15 years (RR: 0.849 95% CI: 0.800-0.901), but no evidence of a nonlinear association between menarche age and CVD mortality (P nonlinearity = 0.543), IHD mortality (P nonlinearity = 0.310), or stroke mortality (P nonlinearity = 0.824). Conclusions: Age at menarche is inversely associated with all-cause and IHD mortality.

Introduction:Emerging from the epidemiological transition and accelerated aging process, China’s fragmentated healthcare systems struggle to meet the demands of the population. On Sept 1st 2017, China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission encouraged all cities to learn from the Luohu model of integration adopted in Luohu as an approach to meeting these challenges. In this paper, we study the integration process, analyze the core mechanisms, and conduct preliminary evaluations of integrated policy development in the Luohu model.Policy development:The Luohu hospital group was established in Aug 2015, consists of five district hospitals, 23 community health stations and an institute of precision medicine. The group adopted a series of professional, organizational, system, functional and normative strategies for integrated care, which was provided for the residents of Luohu, especially for the elderly population and patients with chronic conditions. According to a preliminary evaluation of the past two years, the Luohu model showed improvement in the structure and process towards integrated care. New preventive programs conducted in the hospital group resulted in changes of disease incidence. Residents were more satisfied with the Luohu model. However, spending exceeded the global budget for health insurance because of short-term increases in the demand for health care.Lessons learned:First, engagement of multiple stakeholders is essential for the design and implementation of reform. Second, organizational integration is a prerequisite for integrated care in China. Third, effective care integration requires alignment with payment reforms. Fourth, normative integration could promote collaboration in an integrated healthcare system.Conclusion:Core strategies and mechanisms of the Luohu model will promote integrated care in urban China and other countries facing the same challenges. However, it is necessary to study the effects of the Luohu model over the long term and continue to strive for integrated care.