On construction sites, there are many catastrophic accidents induced by human error. The fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) is an effective method for assessing human error hazards in such a context. However, deficiencies regarding the aspects of reasonably considering the input weight, evaluation of common performance conditions (CPCs), and the rule‐based approach for fuzzy illation are frequently encountered. This paper provides an improved weighted fuzzy CREAM model. First, the reasonable weight of the CPCs is obtained by using multiple correlation analysis and evidence theory. Second, the specific evaluation rules for CPCs are established based on Chinese codes, and the membership function for each CPC level is obtained by a statistical method. The discrete basic diagram for the control mode is then transformed into a continuous fuzzy rule‐based model. On that basis, the rationality and reliability of the model are verified by four axioms. The method that introduces the weights into the calculation of the expected effects of CPCs and the reasoning of human error probability (HEP) can help evaluate the effectiveness of CPCs on human performance. The model is sensitive to the minor alterations of CPC scores and weights; the sufficiency of the data utilization and the solution domain are also verified. An exemplified application shows the rationality and validity of the new weighted fuzzy CREAM for shield tunneling human reliability analysis. This model also provides essential HEP data that can be used in hazard analysis in other engineering fields.
Metro construction is normally carried out in complex engineering geological environment, so it can generate various risk events. In the process of metro construction, a scientific risk dynamic analysis is indispensable to reduce and control risks. In order to analyze the risk in metro construction more scientifically and reasonably, in this study, a new risk dynamic analysis method for metro construction is proposed using statistical process control. The method can analyse the risk level according to the process’s capacity index and identify the characteristics of risk variation according to the statistical control chart. The risk level and the characteristic of risks may vary with dynamical updating of monitoring data, so the conclusion of risk evaluation for a time interval can be drawn and corresponding safety measures can be ascertained. The method ushers statistical process control, so the random factors in risk evolution can be considered fully. Then, the method is applied to the risk analysis of shield construction under the Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway in Beijing Metro Line 8, a typical risk problem in the traffic construction. The variation of the risk level and the characteristic of risks can be evaluated reasonably because the dynamical randomness is considered. Moreover, whether risk control measures should be taken and what the effective measures are can be ascertained explicitly.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.