Dynamic Risk Analysis in Metro Construction Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract

Metro construction is normally carried out in complex engineering geological environment, so it can generate various risk events. In the process of metro construction, a scientific risk dynamic analysis is indispensable to reduce and control risks. In order to analyze the risk in metro construction more scientifically and reasonably, in this study, a new risk dynamic analysis method for metro construction is proposed using statistical process control. The method can analyse the risk level according to the process’s capacity index and identify the characteristics of risk variation according to the statistical control chart. The risk level and the characteristic of risks may vary with dynamical updating of monitoring data, so the conclusion of risk evaluation for a time interval can be drawn and corresponding safety measures can be ascertained. The method ushers statistical process control, so the random factors in risk evolution can be considered fully. Then, the method is applied to the risk analysis of shield construction under the Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway in Beijing Metro Line 8, a typical risk problem in the traffic construction. The variation of the risk level and the characteristic of risks can be evaluated reasonably because the dynamical randomness is considered. Moreover, whether risk control measures should be taken and what the effective measures are can be ascertained explicitly.

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