The change in ocean net surface heat flux plays an important role in the climate system. It is closely related to the ocean heat content change and ocean heat transport, particularly over the North Atlantic, where the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere, affecting the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) variability and hence the global climate. However, the difference between simulated surface heat fluxes is still large due to poorly represented dynamical processes involving multiscale interactions in model simulations. In order to explain the discrepancy of the surface heat flux over the North Atlantic, data sets from nineteen AMIP6 and eight highresSST-present climate model simulations are analyzed and compared with the DEEPC (Diagnosing Earth's Energy Pathways in the Climate system) product. As an indirect check of the ocean surface heat flux, the oceanic heat transport inferred from the combination of the ocean surface heat flux, sea ice and ocean heat content tendency is compared with the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heat flux array) observations at 26°N in the Atlantic. The AMIP6 simulations show lower inferred heat transport due to less heat loss to the atmosphere. The heat loss from the AMIP6 ensemble mean north of 26°N in Atlantic is about 10 Wm -2 less than DEEPC, and the heat transport is about 0.30 PW lower than RAPID and DEEPC. The model horizontal resolution effect on the discrepancy is also investigated. Results show that by increasing the resolution, both surface heat flux north of 26°N and heat transport at 26°N of the Atlantic can be improved.
There are no well accepted mechanisms that can explain the annual frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) both globally and in individual ocean basins. Recent studies using idealized models showed that the climatological frequency of TC genesis (TCG) is proportional to the Coriolis parameter associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position. In this study, we investigate the effect of the ITCZ position on TCG on the interannual time scale using observations over 1979-2020. Our results show that the TCG frequency is significantly correlated with the ITCZ position in the North Atlantic (NA) and Western North Pacific (WNP), with more TCG events in years when the ITCZ is further poleward. The ITCZ-TCG relationship in NA is dominated by TCG events in the tropics (0-20°N), while the relationship in WNP is due to TCs formed in the east sector (140-180°E). We further confirmed that the ENSO has little effect on the ITCZ-TCG relationship despite it can affects the ITCZ position and TCG frequency separately. In NA and WNP, a poleward shift of ITCZ is significantly associated with large-scale environment changes favoring TCG in the Main Development Region (MDR), However, the basin-wide TCG frequency has a weak relationship with the ITCZ in other ocean basins. We showed that a poleward ITCZ in the Eastern North Pacific and South Pacific favors TCG on the poleward flank of the MDR, whilst it suppresses TCG on the equatorward flank, leading to insignificant change in the basin-wide TCG frequency. In the South Indian Ocean, the ITCZ position has weak effect on TCG frequency due to the mixed influences of environmental conditions.
The energy budget imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the energy flow in the Earth’s system plays an essential role in climate change over the global and regional scales. Under the constraint of observations, the radiative fluxes at TOA have been reconstructed prior to CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) between 1985 and 2000. The total atmospheric energy divergence has been mass corrected based on ERA5 (the fifth generation ECMWF ReAnalysis) atmospheric reanalysis by a newly developed method considering the enthalpy removing of the atmospheric water vapor, which avoids inconsistencies due to the residual lateral total mass flux divergence in the atmosphere, ensuring the balances of the freshwater fluxes at the surface. The net surface energy flux (Fs) has been estimated using the residual method based on energy conservation, which is the difference between the net TOA radiative flux and the atmospheric energy tendency and divergence. The Fs is then verified directly and indirectly with observations, and results show that the estimated Fs in North Atlantic is superior to those from model simulations. This paper gives a brief review of the progress in the estimation of the observed energy flow in the Earth system, discusses some caveats of the existing method, and provides some suggestions for the improvements of the aforementioned data sets.
Understanding the water cycle change under a warming climate is essential, particularly the ocean to land moisture transport, which affects the precipitation over land areas and influences society and the ecosystem. Using ERA5 data from 1988 to 2020, the time series of moisture transport and the trend across the boundary of each continent, including Eurasia, Africa, North America, South America, Antarctic, Australia, and Greenland, have been investigated. The inflow and outflow sections of the moisture have been identified for each continent. The trends of moisture convergence over Eurasia, Africa, North America, and Antarctic are all positive, with the values of 2.59 ± 3.12, 2.60 ± 3.17, 12.98 ± 2.28, and 0.32 ± 0.47 (in 106 kg/s/decade), respectively, but only the trend over North America is statistically significant at a 0.1 significance level. The moisture convergence trend of −0.59 ± 3.63 (in 106 kg/s/decade) over South America is negative but insignificant. The positive trend of 0.10 ± 0.35 (in 106 kg/s/decade) over Greenland is very weak. The precipitation, evaporation, and moisture convergence are well balanced at middle and low latitudes, but the combination of moisture convergence and evaporation is systematically lower than the precipitation over Antarctic and Greenland. Contributions of evaporation and moisture convergence (or transport) to the continental precipitation vary with the continent, but the moisture convergence dominates the precipitation variability over all continents, and the significant correlation coefficients between the anomaly time series of continental mean moisture convergence and precipitation are higher than 0.8 in all continents.
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