To address devastating environmental crises and to improve human well-being, China has been implementing a number of national policies on payments for ecosystem services. Two of them, the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and the Grain to Green Program (GTGP), are among the biggest programs in the world because of their ambitious goals, massive scales, huge payments, and potentially enormous impacts. The NFCP conserves natural forests through logging bans and afforestation with incentives to forest enterprises, whereas the GTGP converts cropland on steep slopes to forest and grassland by providing farmers with grain and cash subsidies. Overall ecological effects are beneficial, and socioeconomic effects are mostly positive. Whereas there are time lags in ecological effects, socioeconomic effects are more immediate. Both the NFCP and the GTGP also have global implications because they increase vegetative cover, enhance carbon sequestration, and reduce dust to other countries by controlling soil erosion. The future impacts of these programs may be even bigger. Extended payments for the GTGP have recently been approved by the central government for up to 8 years. The NFCP is likely to follow suit and receive renewed payments. To make these programs more effective, we recommend systematic planning, diversified funding, effective compensation, integrated research, and comprehensive monitoring. Effective implementation of these programs can also provide important experiences and lessons for other ecosystem service payment programs in China and many other parts of the world.conservation ͉ environment ͉ forests ͉ grassland ͉ sustainability

ABSTRACT. Increasingly, the world is becoming socioeconomically and environmentally connected, but many studies have focused on human-environment interactions within a particular area. Although some studies have considered the impacts of external factors, there is little research on multiple reciprocal socioeconomic and environmental interactions between a focal area and other areas. Here we address this important knowledge gap by applying the new integrated framework of telecouplings (socioeconomic and environmental interactions between two or more areas over distances). Results show that even a protected area -i.e., the Wolong Nature Reserve for giant pandas in southwest China -has multiple telecoupling processes with the rest of the world; these include panda loans, tourism, information dissemination, conservation subsidies, and trade of agricultural and industrial products. The telecoupling processes exhibit nonlinear patterns, they change over time, and they have varying socioeconomic and environmental effects across the world. We also find complex relationships among different telecouplings -e.g., amplification, offsetting, spatial overlaps -which cannot be detected by traditional separate studies. Such an integrated study leads to a more comprehensive understanding of distant human-environment interactions and has significant implications for global sustainability and human well-being.

Abstract. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

We quantified the relationship between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and occurrence and magnitude of extreme precipitation in western U.S. watersheds, using ARs identified by the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project and precipitation from a high‐resolution regional climate simulation. Our analysis shows the potential of ARs in predicting extreme precipitation events at a daily scale, with Gilbert Skill Scores of ~0.2. Monthly extreme precipitation amount in west coast watersheds is closely related to AR intensity, with correlation coefficients of up to 0.6. The relationship between ARs and precipitation is most significant in the Pacific Northwest and California. Using a K‐means clustering algorithm, ARs can be classified into three categories: weak ARs, flash ARs, and prolonged ARs. Flash ARs and prolonged ARs, though accounting for less than 50% of total AR events, are more important in controlling extreme precipitation patterns and should be prioritized for future studies of hydrological extreme events.

Growing population and increased demand for water is causing an increase in dam and reservoir construction in developing nations. When rivers cross international boundaries, the downstream stakeholders often have little knowledge of upstream reservoir operation practices. Satellite remote sensing in the form of radar altimetry and multisensor precipitation products can be used as a practical way to provide downstream stakeholders with the fundamentally elusive upstream information on reservoir outflow needed to make important and proactive water management decisions. This study uses a mass balance approach of three hydrologic controls to estimate reservoir outflow from satellite data at monthly and annual time scales: precipitation-induced inflow, evaporation, and reservoir storage change. Furthermore, this study explores the importance of each of these hydrologic controls to the accuracy of outflow estimation. The hydrologic controls found to be unimportant could potentially be neglected from similar future studies. Two reservoirs were examined in contrasting regions of the world, the Hungry Horse Reservoir in a mountainous region in northwest U.S. and the Kaptai Reservoir in a low-lying, forested region of Bangladesh. It was found that this mass balance method estimated the annual outflow of both reservoirs with reasonable skill. The estimation of monthly outflow from both reservoirs was however less accurate. The Kaptai basin exhibited a shift in basin behavior resulting in variable accuracy across the 9 year study period. Monthly outflow estimation from Hungry Horse Reservoir was compounded by snow accumulation and melt processes, reflected by relatively low accuracy in summer and fall, when snow processes control runoff. Furthermore, it was found that the important hydrologic controls for reservoir outflow estimation at the monthly time scale differs between the two reservoirs, with precipitation-induced inflow being the most important control for the Kaptai Reservoir and storage change being the most important for Hungry Horse Reservoir. Key Points:Mass balance can be used to estimate reservoir outflow Snowpack-dominated reservoirs require process-based models Joint use of satellite precipitation and water heights can provide outflow (2016), Understanding satellite-based monthly-to-seasonal reservoir outflow estimation as a function of hydrologic controls, Water Resour. Res., 52,

Abstract. We used a process-based model to examine the role of spatial heterogeneity of surface and sub-surface water on the carbon budget of the wetlands of the West Siberian Lowland over the period 1948-2010. We found that, while surface heterogeneity (fractional saturated area) had little overall effect on estimates of the region's carbon fluxes, subsurface heterogeneity (spatial variations in water table depth) played an important role in both the overall magnitude and spatial distribution of estimates of the region's carbon fluxes. In particular, to reproduce the spatial pattern of CH 4 emissions recorded by intensive in situ observations across the domain, in which very little CH 4 is emitted north of 60 • N, it was necessary to (a) account for CH 4 emissions from unsaturated wetlands and (b) use spatially varying methane model parameters that reduced estimated CH 4 emissions in the northern (permafrost) half of the domain (and/or account for lower CH 4 emissions under inundated conditions). Our results suggest that previous estimates of the response of these wetlands to thawing permafrost may have overestimated future increases in methane emissions in the permafrost zone.

Background Few multicity studies have addressed the health effects of ozone in China due to the scarcity of ozone monitoring data. A critical scientific and policy-relevant question is whether a threshold exists in the ozone-mortality relationship. Methods Using a generalized additive model and a univariate random-effects meta-analysis, this research evaluated the relationship between short-term ozone exposure and daily total mortality in seven cities of Jiangsu Province, China during 2013–2014. Spline, subset, and threshold models were applied to further evaluate whether a safe threshold level exists. Results This study found strong evidence that short-term ozone exposure is significantly associated with premature total mortality. A 10 μg/m3 increase in the average of the current and previous days’ maximum 8-h average ozone concentration was associated with a 0.55% (95% posterior interval: 0.34%, 0.76%) increase of total mortality. This finding is robust when considering the confounding effect of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2. No consistent evidence was found for a threshold in the ozone-mortality concentration-response relationship down to concentrations well below the current Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard (CAAQS) level 2 standard (160 μg/m3). Conclusions Our findings suggest that ozone concentrations below the current CAAQS level 2 standard could still induce increased mortality risks in Jiangsu Province, China. Continuous air pollution control measures could yield important health benefits in Jiangsu Province, China, even in cities that meet the current CAAQS level 2 standard.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can significantly modulate surface hydrological processes through the extreme precipitation they produce. However, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation of ARs' impact on surface hydrology. This study uses a high‐resolution regional climate simulation to quantify the impact of ARs on surface hydrological processes across the western U.S. watersheds. The model performance is evaluated through extensive comparison against observations. Our analysis indicates that ARs produce heavy precipitation but suppress evapotranspiration. Snowpack ablates more during ARs, with higher air temperature and increased longwave radiation playing the primary and secondary roles, respectively. At the 0 °C to 10 °C temperature range, ARs increase the probability of snow ablation from 0.33 to 0.57. The runoff‐to‐precipitation ratio is primarily controlled by antecedent soil moisture, but it almost doubles in the northwestern watersheds due to the intensification of snow ablation during AR events. From the analysis of the relationship between the hydrological responses and different meteorological factors, precipitation, temperature, and radiation are identified as the key drivers that distinguish the hydrologic responses between AR and non‐AR events. Lastly, analysis of ARs and total runoff at annual scale and 1 April snowpack and winter precipitation shows that ARs explain 30% to 60% of the variability of annual total runoff and sharpen the seasonality of water resources availability in the west coast mountain watersheds.