The dichotomy in the economics of transition literature with regard to the reform speed (Gradualist vs Radical Approach) and reform strategy (incremental reform vs structural reform) fails to capture the essence of the transitional process of a transitional economy that was ever under the control of planned economic system. In this paper, we construct a system dynamics model to provide a unified theoretical framework to illustrate that reform speed and reform strategy are inherently intertwined. We propose 4 optimal reforming combinations between reform speed and reform strategy to track the transitional trajectories of different transitional economies since 1980s. These 4 optimal reforming combinations are: (1) Incremental reform in radical speed. (2) Incremental reform in gradualist speed. (3) Structural reform in radical speed. (4) Structural reform in gradualist speed. In this paper, we demonstrate that a transitional economy would adopt one of the aforementioned 4 optimal reforming combination if and only if it minimizes the reforming cost incurred during the shock period of radical reform as well as the dual track period of gradualist reforms. Several factors in our model affecting these 4 optimal reforming combinations are also discussed. These factors include the spillover effect (both vertical and horizontal) of a newly established reforming promotion sector on other old sectors in a transitional economy, the endogenous reform damping coefficient determined by one transitional economy"s initial conditions and the reform damping coefficient determined by the dual track system during the gradualist reform process.
This research constructs a simple model to illustrate the global supply-chain (GSC) profit sharing and industrial upgrading mechanism, finding that the average profitability distribution in the different supply-chain stages is determined by three main conditions: (1) the average product of the labor in the firms at each production stage; (2) the production complexity level of each production stage in the chain; and (3) the ratio of the output elasticity of capital to the output elasticity of labor in each stage. This study also proposes a new industrial upgrading mechanism, the "smilecurve-driven supply-chain upgrading," for supply-chain firms. Increases in production complexity and level of factor intensity in each production stage are found to be the two essential conditions for the smile-curvedriven supply-chain upgrading. Our static and dynamic panel empirical models, including robustness checks, are both broadly consistent with the theoretical predictions of this paper.
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