A novel approach based on an artificial neural network was used to forecast sea surface height (SSH) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) in order to predict Loop Current variation and its eddy shedding process. The empirical orthogonal function analysis method was applied to decompose long-term satellite-observed SSH into spatial patterns (EOFs) and time-dependent principal components (PCs). The nonlinear autoregressive network was then developed to predict major PCs of the GoM SSH in the future. The prediction of SSH in the GoM was constructed by multiplying the EOFs and predicted PCs. Model sensitivity experiments were conducted to determine the optimal number of PCs. Validations against independent satellite observations indicate that the neural network-based model can reliably predict Loop Current variations and its eddy shedding process for a 4-week period. In some cases, an accurate forecast for 5-6 weeks is possible.
Coastal circulation and transport of sediment derived from the Huanghe and Changjiang Rivers in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECS) over the past 48 years (1958-2005) were simulated and analyzed using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport modeling system. Model skill assessments against in situ wave and hydrographical observations indicate the model simulation can reasonably well reproduce the hydrodynamic environment of the BYECS. Model-simulated regions of high fine sediment accumulation rate correlate well with the observed regions, which are known as "muddy patches." Bottom stress analysis further indicates that the formation of muddy patches near river mouths is largely due to their proximity to the sediment source. Muddy patches formed in regions farther away from river mouths are results of local weak bottom stress and associated circulation pattern. Simulated seabed sediment distribution reveals that most of the Huanghe-derived sediment stays inside the Bohai Sea, whereas the Changjiang-derived sediment can spread into both the Yellow and East China Seas. Strong seasonal variations exist in the river-derived sediment transport with stronger (weaker) offshore sediment transport occurring in the winter (summer).
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