a b s t r a c tUnderstanding the processes responsible for coastal change is important for managing our coastal resources, both natural and economic. The current scientific understanding of coastal sediment transport and geology suggests that examining coastal processes at regional scales can lead to significant insight into how the coastal zone evolves. To better identify the significant processes affecting our coastlines and how those processes create coastal change we developed a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System, which is comprised of the Model Coupling Toolkit to exchange data fields between the ocean model ROMS, the atmosphere model WRF, the wave model SWAN, and the sediment capabilities of the Community Sediment Transport Model. This formulation builds upon previous developments by coupling the atmospheric model to the ocean and wave models, providing one-way grid refinement in the ocean model, one-way grid refinement in the wave model, and coupling on refined levels. Herein we describe the modeling components and the data fields exchanged. The modeling system is used to identify model sensitivity by exchanging prognostic variable fields between different model components during an application to simulate Hurricane Isabel during September 2003. Results identify that hurricane intensity is extremely sensitive to sea surface temperature. Intensity is reduced when coupled to the ocean model although the coupling provides a more realistic simulation of the sea surface temperature. Coupling of the ocean to the atmosphere also results in decreased boundary layer stress and coupling of the waves to the atmosphere results in increased bottom stress. Wave results are sensitive to both ocean and atmospheric coupling due to wave-current interactions with the ocean and wave growth from the atmosphere wind stress. Sediment resuspension at regional scale during the hurricane is controlled by shelf width and wave propagation during hurricane approach.Published by Elsevier Ltd.

B y E r i c P. c h a s s i g N E t, h a r l E y E . h u r l B u r t, E . J o s E P h M E t z g E r , o l E M a r t i N s M E d s ta d , J a M E s a . c u M M i N g s ,g E o r g E r . h a l l i w E l l , r a i N E r B l E c k , r E M y B a r a i l l E , The partnership represents a broad spectrum of the oceanographic community, bringing together academia, federal agencies, and industry/commercial entities, and spanning modeling, data assimilation, data management and serving, observational capabilities, and application of HYCOM prediction system outputs. In addition to providing real-time, eddy-resolving global-and basin-scale ocean prediction systems for the US Navy and NOAA, this project also offered an outstanding opportunity for NOAA-Navy collaboration and cooperation, ranging from research to the operational level. This paper provides an overview of the global HYCOM ocean prediction system and highlights some of its achievements. An important outcome of this effort is the capability of the global system to provide boundary conditions to even higherresolution regional and coastal models.Oceanography Vol. In addition to operational eddyresolving global-and basin-scale ocean prediction systems for the US Navy and NOAA, respectively, this project offered an outstanding opportunity for NOAA-Navy collaboration and cooperation ranging from research to the operational level.

[1] Material property distributions on continental shelves result from the mixing and modifications of estuarine and deep-ocean source waters. How this occurs depends on the momentum and buoyancy that are input either locally on the shelf or from the deep-ocean at the shelf break. We address this question of local versus deep-ocean forcing for the West Florida Shelf (WFS) using in situ data and a numerical circulation model. The spring and summer seasons of 1998 and 1999 show distinctively different water properties on the shelf and at the shelf break. We account for these differences by a combination of local forcing, independent of the adjacent Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, and interactions of the Loop Current with the shelf. The primary role of the deep ocean is to set the height of material isopleths along the shelf slope. Whether or not these material isopleths broach the shelf break is then a consequence of local, shelf-wide wind and buoyancy forcing. The subsequent along-and across-shelf distributions are accomplished through a combination of local and deep-ocean effects, with the bottom Ekman layer being the major conduit for the across-shelf transport of ecologically important materials.

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Ocean circulation models are widely used to simulate organism transport in the open sea, where challenges of directly tracking organisms across vast spatial and temporal scales are daunting. Many recent studies tout the use of 'high-resolution' models, which are forced with atmospheric data on the scale of several hours and integrated with a time step of several minutes or seconds. However, in many cases, the model's outputs that are used to simulate organism movement have been averaged to considerably coarser resolutions (e.g. monthly mean velocity fields). To examine the sensitivity of tracking results to ocean circulation model output resolution, we took the native model output of one of the most sophisticated ocean circulation models available, the Global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, and averaged it to commonly implemented spatial and temporal resolutions in studies of basin-scale dispersal. Comparisons between simulated particle trajectories and in situ near-surface drifter trajectories indicated that 'over averaging' model output yields predictions inconsistent with observations. Further analyses focused on the dispersal of juvenile sea turtles indicate that very different inferences regarding the pelagic ecology of these animals are obtained depending on the resolution of model output. We conclude that physical processes occurring at the scale of days and tens of kilometres should be preserved in ocean circulation model output to realistically depict the movement marine organisms and the resulting ecological and evolutionary processes.

Abstract.A three-dimensional coupled physicalbiogeochemical model is applied to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of circulation and biogeochemical cycling in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The model is driven by realistic atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions from a data assimilative global ocean circulation model, and observed freshwater and terrestrial nitrogen input from major rivers. A 7 yr model hindcast (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) was performed, and validated against satellite observed sea surface height, surface chlorophyll, and in situ observations including coastal sea level, ocean temperature, salinity, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentration. The model hindcast revealed clear seasonality in DIN, phytoplankton and zooplankton distributions in the GoM. An empirical orthogonal function analysis indicated a phaselocked pattern among DIN, phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations. The GoM shelf nitrogen budget was also quantified, revealing that on an annual basis the DIN input is largely balanced by the removal through denitrification (an equivalent of ∼ 80 % of DIN input) and offshore exports to the deep ocean (an equivalent of ∼ 17 % of DIN input).

A coupled physical/biological modeling system was used to hindcast the 2005 Alexandrium fundyense bloom in the Gulf of Maine and investigate the relative importance of factors governing the bloom’s initiation and development. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine (GOM) using a multi-nested configuration, and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system was forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields. Extensive comparisons were made between simulated (both physical and biological) fields and in-situ observations, revealing that the hindcast model is capable of reproducing the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the 2005 bloom. Sensitivity experiments were then performed to distinguish the roles of three major factors hypothesized to contribute to the bloom: 1) the high abundance of cysts in western GOM sediments; 2) strong northeaster storms with prevailing downwelling-favorable winds; and 3) a large amount of fresh water input due to abundant rainfall and heavy snowmelt. Results suggested that the high abundance of cysts in western GOM was the primary factor of the 2005 bloom. Wind forcing was an important regulator, as episodic bursts of northeast winds caused onshore advection of offshore populations. These downwelling favorable winds accelerated the alongshore flow, resulting in transport of high cell concentrations into Massachusetts Bay. A large regional bloom would still have happened, however, even with normal or typical winds for that period. Anomalously high river runoff in 2005 resulted in stronger buoyant plumes/currents, which facilitated the transport of cell population to the western GOM. While affecting nearshore cell abundance in Massachusetts Bay, the buoyant plumes were confined near to the coast, and had limited impact on the gulf-wide bloom distribution.

[1] Previous hypotheses had suggested that upwelled intrusions of nutrient-rich Gulf of Mexico slope water onto the West Florida Shelf (WFS) led to formation of red tides of Karenia brevis. However, coupled biophysical models of (1) wind-and buoyancy-driven circulation, (2) three phytoplankton groups (diatoms, K. brevis, and microflagellates), (3) these slope water supplies of nitrate and silicate, and (4) selective grazing stress by copepods and protozoans found that diatoms won in one 1998 case of no light limitation by colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). The diatoms lost to K. brevis during another CDOM case of the models. In the real world, field data confirmed that diatoms were indeed the dominant phytoplankton after massive upwelling in 1998, when only a small red tide of K. brevis was observed. Over a 7-month period of the CDOM-free scenario the simulated total primary production of the phytoplankton community was $1.8 g C m À2 d À1 along the 40-m isobath of the northern WFS, with the largest accumulation of biomass on the Florida Middle Ground (FMG). Despite such photosynthesis, these models of the WFS yielded a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere during spring and summer and suggested a small sink in the fall. With diatom losses of 90% of their daily carbon fixation to herbivores the simulation supported earlier impressions of a short, diatom-based food web on the FMG, where organic carbon content of the surficial sediments is tenfold those of the surrounding seabeds. Farther south, the simulated near-bottom pools of ammonium were highest in summer, when silicon regeneration was minimal, leading to temporary Si limitation of the diatoms. Termination of these upwelled pulses of production by diatoms and nonsiliceous microflagellates mainly resulted from nitrate exhaustion in the model, however, mimicking most del 15 PON observations in the field. Yet, the CDOM-free case of the models failed to replicate the observed small red tide in December 1998, tagged with the del 15 N signature of nitrogen fixation. A large red tide of K. brevis did form in the CDOMrich case, when estuarine supplies of CDOM favored the growth of the shade-adapted, ungrazed dinoflagellates. The usual formation of large harmful algal blooms of >1 ug chl L À1(10 5 cells L À1 ) in the southern part of the WFS, between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, must instead depend upon local aeolian and estuarine supplies of nutrients and CDOM sun screen, not those from the shelf break. In the absence of slope water supplies, local upwelling instead focuses nitrate-poor innocula of co-occurring K. brevis and nitrogen fixers at coastal fronts for both aggregation and transfer of nutrients between these phytoplankton groups.