The tsunami heights from the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake were between 0.4 and 2.9 m along the Myanmar coast, according to our post tsunami survey at 22 sites in Ayeyarwaddy Delta and the Taninthayi coast. Interviews to coastal residents indicate that the tsunami heights were lower than high tide level in rainy season, probably by storm surge. They also testified that the arrival times were between 2 and 5.5 hours after the earthquake but the reliability may be low because nobody felt ground shaking. Much smaller tsunami than the neighboring Thai coast, where the tsunami heights were 5 to 20 m, explains relatively slighter tsunami damage in Myanmar; the casualties were reported as 71, compared to about 8300 in Thailand. The smaller tsunami was probably due to the fact that the main tsunami source did not extend to Andaman Islands. The tsunami travel times and maximum heights computed from a 700 km long source are basically consistent with the observations. For a nearby tsunami source, the tsunami hazard would be more significant in Myanmar, because coastal houses are unprotected for tsunamis and no infrastructure exists to disseminate tsunami warning information.
Tectonic environments, recent stress and crustal strain observations, and historical descriptions of geomorphological changes and eyewitness accounts of the 1762 Bengal earthquake suggest that great earthquakes (M 8.0 or larger) can occur along the northward continuation of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. We describe marine terraces along the Rakhine coast of Myanmar as evidence for three great earthquakes in the past 3400 years. Radiocarbon dating of coral remains suggests that the oldest terrace emerged three times, during 1395–740 BC, AD 805–1220 and AD 1585–1810. We assign the youngest age to the 1762 earthquake, which reportedly raised parts of the Burmese coast by 3–7 m. These indicate that the great subduction-zone earthquakes have repeatedly occurred west off Myanmar with an average recurrence interval of about 1000–2000 years. The time since the last earthquake, ~ 250 years, is much shorter than the average interval, hence the chance of next earthquakes in the near future may be considered as low. However, the variability in both uplift amounts and recurrence intervals suggests the next great earthquake could happen sooner or later than would be expected from the average interval.
A post-tsunami survey was conducted along the Myanmar coast two months after the 2004 Great Sumatra earthquake ( Mw=9.0) that occurred off the west coast of Sumatra and generated a devastating tsunami around the Indian Ocean. Visual observations, measurements, and a survey of local people's experiences with the tsunami indicated some reasons why less damage and fewer casualties occurred in Myanmar than in other countries around the Indian Ocean. The tide level at the measured sites was calibrated with reference to a real-time tsunami datum, and the tsunami tide level range was 2–3 m for 22 localities in Myanmar. The tsunami arrived three to four hours after the earthquake.
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