Recent work indicates that people hold a variety of self-serving biases, believing themselves more capable than they are in fact. Such biases, if extended to the organizational level, would lead to overly optimistic planning for the future. This prediction was tested with two groups of management students and with a sample of corporate presidents. The management students consistently overestimated their abilities; in a marketing exercise, they likewise indicated that a hypothetical firm, of which they were sales managers, would quickly overtake established competition. The executive sample also predicted inordinate success; the latter group, however, moderated projections somewhat if prior planning experience had been unsatisfactory. The importance of managerial myopia to considerations of marketing, resource management, and demarketing is discussed.

The objective of this study was to analyse associations between sexualised substance use (chemsex), STI diagnoses and sexual behaviour among gay bisexual and other men who have sex with men accessing sexual health clinics to better inform clinical pathways. A retrospective case notes review was undertaken following the introduction of more detailed and holistic profomas for all gay bisexual and other men who have sex with men attending two London sexual health clinics between 1 June 2014 and 31 January 2015. Chemsex status was documented for 655/818. Overall, 30% disclosed recreational drug use of whom 113 (57%) disclosed chemsex and 27 (13.5%) injecting drugs. HIV-positive gay bisexual and other men who have sex with men were more likely to disclose chemsex (AOR 6.68; 95% CI 3.91-11.42; p< 0.001). Those disclosing chemsex had a higher incidence of acute bacterial STIs (AOR 2.83 CI 1.79-4.47; p < 0.001), rectal STIs (AOR 3.10 CI 1.81-5.32; p < 0.001) or hepatitis C (AOR 15.41 CI 1.50-158.17; p = 0.021). HIV incidence in the study period was 1.8% (chemsex) vs. 0.9% (no chemsex) (p = 0.61). Chemsex was associated with having more sexual partners, transactional sex, group sex, fisting, sharing sex toys, injecting drug use, higher alcohol consumption and the use of 'bareback' sexual networking applications (p < 0.004). Chemsex participants were also more likely to have accessed post-exposure prophylaxis for HIV in the study period and report sex with a discordant HIV or hepatitis C-infected partner (p < 0.001). Chemsex disclosure is associated with higher risk-taking behaviours, acute bacterial STIs, rectal STIs and hepatitis C incidence. HIV incidence was higher but not significantly so in the study period. Chemsex disclosure in sexual health clinics should prompt an opportunity for prevention, health promotion and wellbeing interventions.

Chemsex disclosure in sexual health settings is associated with higher rates of STI diagnoses, including HIV infection and hepatitis C. GBMSM attending sexual health services should therefore be assessed for chemsex participation and disclosure should prompt health promotion, harm minimization and wellbeing interventions.

BackgroundTotal tooth loss (edentulism) can be a debilitating condition, impacting on ability to chew, speak and interact with others. The most common treatment is with complete removable dentures, which may be successful, but in the lower jaw, bone resorption that worsens over time makes denture-wearing difficult. Two dental implants in the mandible to retain the lower denture has been advocated as the gold standard of treatment, but has not been universally provided due largely to financial constraints and also patient fear. Mini implants (MI) are cheaper and less invasive than conventional implants (CI), but may not have equivalent longevity. Therefore, it is unknown whether they represent a cost-effective treatment modality over time. The aim of this pilot randomised controlled trial was to assess the feasibility of carrying out a trial on this cohort of patients, and to inform the study design of a large multicentre trial.MethodsForty-six patients were randomly allocated to receive either two mini implants or two conventional implants in the mandible to retain their lower dentures. Quality of life (QoL) questionnaires, pain and anxiety scores, and an objective “gummy jelly” chewing test were carried out at multiple timepoints, along with detailed health economics information. Implants were placed one-stage, and an early loading protocol was utilised. Patients were reviewed 8 weeks post-placement, and finally at 6 months. Implant failure, recruitment and retention rates were recorded and analysed.ResultsThe pilot study demonstrated that it is possible to recruit, randomise and retain edentulous (mainly elderly) patients for an implant trial. We recruited to target and retention rates were acceptable. The large number of questionnaires was onerous for participants to complete, but the distribution of scores and feedback from participants helped inform the choice of primary and secondary outcomes in a full trial. The chewing test was time-consuming and inconsistent. Implant failure rate was low (1/46). The data on indirect costs gathered at every visit was viewed as repetitive and unnecessary, as there was little or no change between visits.ConclusionsThe pilot study has shown that acceptable recruitment and retention rates are achievable in this population of patients for this intervention. The results provide valuable information for selection of outcome variables and sample size calculations for future trials.Trial registration(ISRCTN): 87342238 Trial registration date: 05/07/2013.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12903-017-0333-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundHealth services across the world increasingly face pressures on the use of expensive hospital services. Better organisation and delivery of primary care has the potential to manage demand and reduce costs for hospital services, but routine primary care services are not open during evenings and weekends.Extended access (evening and weekend opening) is hypothesized to reduce pressure on hospital services from emergency department visits. However, the existing evidence-base is weak, largely focused on emergency out-of-hours services, and analysed using a before-and after-methodology without effective comparators.Methods and FindingsThroughout 2014, 56 primary care practices (346,024 patients) in Greater Manchester, England, offered 7-day extended access, compared with 469 primary care practices (2,596,330 patients) providing routine access. Extended access included evening and weekend opening and served both urgent and routine appointments. To assess the effects of extended primary care access on hospital services, we apply a difference-in-differences analysis using hospital administrative data from 2011 to 2014. Propensity score matching techniques were used to match practices without extended access to practices with extended access. Differences in the change in “minor” patient-initiated emergency department visits per 1,000 population were compared between practices with and without extended access.Populations registered to primary care practices with extended access demonstrated a 26.4% relative reduction (compared to practices without extended access) in patient-initiated emergency department visits for “minor” problems (95% CI -38.6% to -14.2%, absolute difference: -10,933 per year, 95% CI -15,995 to -5,866), and a 26.6% (95% CI -39.2% to -14.1%) relative reduction in costs of patient-initiated visits to emergency departments for minor problems (absolute difference: -£767,976, -£1,130,767 to -£405,184). There was an insignificant relative reduction of 3.1% in total emergency department visits (95% CI -6.4% to 0.2%). Our results were robust to several sensitivity checks. A lack of detailed cost reporting of the running costs of extended access and an inability to capture health outcomes and other health service impacts constrain the study from assessing the full cost-effectiveness of extended access to primary care.ConclusionsThe study found that extending access was associated with a reduction in emergency department visits in the first 12 months. The results of the research have already informed the decision by National Health Service England to extend primary care access across Greater Manchester from 2016. However, further evidence is needed to understand whether extending primary care access is cost-effective and sustainable.

IntroductionDiabetes prevention programs (DPPs) are effective, in a pre-diabetic population, in reducing weight, lowering glycated hemoglobin and slowing the progression to diabetes. Little is known about the relationship between participation in DPPsand participant characteristics or service delivery. We investigated uptake and retention in England’s NHS DPP, reporting on variability among patient subgroups, providers, and sites.Research design and methodsThis prospective cohort study included 99 473 adults with non-diabetic hyperglycemia referred to the English DPP between 2016 and 2017. The program seeks to change health behaviors by offering at least 16 hours of group education and exercise. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to analyze variation in uptake, retention, and completion.ResultsUptake among 99 473 adults referred to the program was 56% (55 275). Among 55 275 who started the program, 34% (18 562) achieved the required dose and 22% (12 127) completed the full course. After adjustment for variation in case mix, substantial heterogeneity in uptake and retention was seen across four service providers (uptake OR 1.77 (1.33, 2.34), 4.30 (3.01, 6.15), and 1.45 (1.07, 1.97) compared with the reference provider) and between sites (uptake for typical individuals ranged from 0.32 to 0.78 across the middle 95% of sites, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.07). Higher levels of retention and completion were seen where some out-of-hours provision was offered (retention OR 1.32 (1.25, 1.39)).ConclusionsThis study provides the first independent assessment of participation in the English DPP and the first study internationally to examine the impact of DPP service delivery on participation. When implementing a large-scale DPP, heterogeneity in service provision between different providers and sites can result in variable participation beyond that attributable to case mix, with potential consequences for effectiveness and health inequalities. Extending out-of-hours provision may improve participation in prevention programs.

In the first year of the pilot 'Payment by Results for Drugs Recovery' scheme in England, linking payments to outcomes reduced the probability of completing drug misuse treatment and increased the proportion service users declining to continue with treatment.

The importance of allocating services in accordance with population needs is well-established. Needs-based approaches to geographical resource allocation were established in the National Health Service in the UK in the 1970s, but the role of population needs has not extended to planning for the quantity and mix of health care services or for the providers required to deliver these services. We present a framework that integrates health service and workforce planning focused on responding to population needs. Using data from the General Household Survey for England over the period 1985-2006, we illustrate trends in health needs and service use per capita. Despite needs per capita falling, service use has increased. Rates of increase in service use are greater among those with less needs illustrating that, in the absence of appropriate planning methods, increases in service use may result from supplier influence rather than policy decisions.