Background The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population mental health is of increasing global concern. We examine changes in adult mental health in the UK population before and during the lockdown. Methods In this secondary analysis of a national, longitudinal cohort study, households that took part in Waves 8 or 9 of the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) panel, including all members aged 16 or older in April, 2020, were invited to complete the COVID-19 web survey on April 23–30, 2020. Participants who were unable to make an informed decision as a result of incapacity, or who had unknown postal addresses or addresses abroad were excluded. Mental health was assessed using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Repeated cross-sectional analyses were done to examine temporal trends. Fixed-effects regression models were fitted to identify within-person change compared with preceding trends. Findings Waves 6–9 of the UKHLS had 53 351 participants. Eligible participants for the COVID-19 web survey were from households that took part in Waves 8 or 9, and 17 452 (41·2%) of 42 330 eligible people participated in the web survey. Population prevalence of clinically significant levels of mental distress rose from 18·9% (95% CI 17·8–20·0) in 2018–19 to 27·3% (26·3–28·2) in April, 2020, one month into UK lockdown. Mean GHQ-12 score also increased over this time, from 11·5 (95% CI 11·3–11·6) in 2018–19, to 12·6 (12·5–12·8) in April, 2020. This was 0·48 (95% CI 0·07–0·90) points higher than expected when accounting for previous upward trends between 2014 and 2018. Comparing GHQ-12 scores within individuals, adjusting for time trends and significant predictors of change, increases were greatest in 18–24-year-olds (2·69 points, 95% CI 1·89–3·48), 25–34-year-olds (1·57, 0·96–2·18), women (0·92, 0·50–1·35), and people living with young children (1·45, 0·79–2·12). People employed before the pandemic also averaged a notable increase in GHQ-12 score (0·63, 95% CI 0·20–1·06). Interpretation By late April, 2020, mental health in the UK had deteriorated compared with pre-COVID-19 trends. Policies emphasising the needs of women, young people, and those with preschool aged children are likely to play an important part in preventing future mental illness. Funding None.

IMPORTANCE: Burnout is prevalent in physicians and can have a negative influence on performance, career continuation and patient care. Existing evidence does not allow clear recommendations for the management of burnout in physicians. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to reduce burnout in physicians. We also examined whether different types of interventions (physician-directed or organization-directed interventions), physician characteristics (length of experience) and healthcare setting characteristics (primary or secondary care) were associated with improved effects. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cinahl, and Central, were searched from inception to May 2016. The reference lists of eligible studies and other relevant systematic reviews were hand-searched. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized controlled trials and controlled before-after studies of interventions targeting burnout in physicians. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. The main meta-analysis was followed by a number of pre-specified subgroup and sensitivity analyses. All analyses were performed using random-effects models and heterogeneity was quantified using I 2. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: The core outcome was burnout scores focused on emotional exhaustion, reported as standardized mean differences and their 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Twenty independent comparisons from 19 studies were included in the metaanalysis (n=1,550 physicians). Interventions were associated with small significant reductions in burnout (SMD=-0.29, 95% CI=-0.42 to-0.16; equal to a drop of 3-points on the emotional exhaustion domain of the Maslach Burnout Inventory above change in the controls). Subgroup analyses suggested significantly improved effects for organization-5 directed interventions (SMD=-0.45, 95% CI=-0.62 to-0.28) compared to physician-directed interventions (SMD=-0.18, 95% CI=-0.32 to-0.03). Interventions delivered in experienced physicians and in primary care were associated with higher effects compared to interventions delivered in inexperienced physicians and in secondary care, but these differences were not significant. The results were not influenced by the risk of bias ratings. CONCLUSION: Evidence from this meta-analysis suggests that current intervention programs for burnout in physicians are associated with small benefits which may be boosted by adoption of organization-directed approaches. This finding provides support for the view that burnout is a problem of the whole healthcare organization, rather than individuals.

Interrupted time series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that can evaluate an intervention effect, using longitudinal data. The advantages, disadvantages, and underlying assumptions of various modelling approaches are discussed using published examples

English family practices attained high levels of achievement in the first year of the new pay-for-performance contract. A small number of practices appear to have achieved high scores by excluding large numbers of patients by exception reporting. More research is needed to determine whether these practices are excluding patients for sound clinical reasons or in order to increase income.

Studies combined in a meta-analysis often have differences in their design and conduct that can lead to heterogeneous results. A random-effects model accounts for these differences in the underlying study effects, which includes a heterogeneity variance parameter. The DerSimonian-Laird method is often used to estimate the heterogeneity variance, but simulation studies have found the method can be biased and other methods are available. This paper compares the properties of nine different heterogeneity variance estimators using simulated meta-analysis data. Simulated scenarios include studies of equal size and of moderate and large differences in size. Results confirm that the DerSimonian-Laird estimator is negatively biased in scenarios with small studies and in scenarios with a rare binary outcome. Results also show the Paule-Mandel method has considerable positive bias in meta-analyses with large differences in study size. We recommend the method of restricted maximum likelihood (REML) to estimate the heterogeneity variance over other methods. However, considering that meta-analyses of health studies typically contain few studies, the heterogeneity variance estimate should not be used as a reliable gauge for the extent of heterogeneity in a meta-analysis. The estimated summary effect of the meta-analysis and its confidence interval derived from the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method are more robust to changes in the heterogeneity variance estimate and show minimal deviation from the nominal coverage of 95% under most of our simulated scenarios.

Against a background of increases in the quality of care before the pay-for-performance scheme was introduced, the scheme accelerated improvements in quality for two of three chronic conditions in the short term. However, once targets were reached, the improvement in the quality of care for patients with these conditions slowed, and the quality of care declined for two conditions that had not been linked to incentives. Continuity of care was reduced after the introduction of the scheme.

OBJECTIVEGlycemic variability is emerging as a measure of glycemic control, which may be a reliable predictor of complications. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates the association between HbA 1c variability and micro-and macrovascular complications and mortality in type 1 and type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSMedline and Embase were searched (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) for studies describing associations between HbA 1c variability and adverse outcomes in patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Data extraction was performed independently by two reviewers. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed with stratification according to the measure of HbA 1c variability, method of analysis, and diabetes type. RESULTS

Objective To systematically review and provide information on the incidence of psoriasis and quantify global, regional, and country specific estimates of its prevalence. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, Web of Science, SciELO, Korean Journal Databases, Russian Science Citation Index, WPRIM, SaudiMedLit, Informit, IndMed, and HERDIN were searched systematically from their inception dates to October 2019. Methods Studies were included if they reported on the incidence or prevalence of psoriasis in the general population. Incidence data were summarised descriptively, whereas bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to estimate the global, regional, and country specific prevalence of psoriasis. Results 41 164 records were identified and 168 studies met the inclusion criteria. In adults, the incidence of psoriasis varied from 30.3 per 100 000 person years (95% confidence interval 26.6 to 34.1) in Taiwan to 321.0 per 100 000 person years in Italy. The prevalence of psoriasis varied from 0.14% (95% uncertainty interval 0.05% to 0.40%) in east Asia to 1.99% (0.64% to 6.60%) in Australasia. The prevalence of psoriasis was also high in western Europe (1.92%, 1.07% to 3.46%), central Europe (1.83%, 0.62% to 5.32%), North America (1.50%, 0.63% to 3.60%), and high income southern Latin America (1.10%, 0.36% to 2.96%). Conclusions Eighty one per cent of the countries of the world lack information on the epidemiology of psoriasis. The disease occurs more frequently in adults than in children. Psoriasis is unequally distributed across geographical regions; it is more frequent in high income countries and in regions with older populations. The estimates provided can help guide countries and the international community when making public health decisions on the appropriate management of psoriasis and assessing its natural history over time. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42019160817.