Although the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts is continuously improving and new information retrieved from climate data is adding to the understanding of climate variation, use of the forecasts and climate information by farmers in farming decisions has changed little. This lack of change may result from knowledge barriers and psychological, social, and economic factors that undermine farmer motivation to use forecasts and climate information. According to the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the motivation to use forecasts may arise from personal attitudes, social norms, and perceived control or ability to use forecasts in specific decisions. These attributes are examined using data from a survey designed around the TPB and conducted among farming communities in the region of eastern Nebraska and the western U.S. Corn Belt. There were three major findings: 1) the utility and value of the forecasts for farming decisions as perceived by farmers are, on average, around 3.0 on a 0–7 scale, indicating much room to improve attitudes toward the forecast value. 2) The use of forecasts by farmers to influence decisions is likely affected by several social groups that can provide “expert viewpoints” on forecast use. 3) A major obstacle, next to forecast accuracy, is the perceived identity and reliability of the forecast makers. Given the rapidly increasing number of forecasts in this growing service business, the ambiguous identity of forecast providers may have left farmers confused and may have prevented them from developing both trust in forecasts and skills to use them. These findings shed light on productive avenues for increasing the influence of forecasts, which may lead to greater farming productivity. In addition, this study establishes a set of reference points that can be used for comparisons with future studies to quantify changes in forecast use and influence.

Fragipans are a common feature in Pennsylvania, occurring in 30% of Pennsylvania' soils. These fragipans resist root penetration and are characterized by very coarse prismatic structure, firm to very firm brittle consistence, low permeability, bulk densities that are higher than overlying horizons, loamy textures, and a low organic matter content. An index of fragipan expression (weak, moderate, and strong), based on firmness, brittleness, permeability, resistance to root penetration, and strength, is proposed. Fragipans form in transported parent materials: glacial till, colluvium, loess, old alluvium, and, less commonly, in lacustrine and turbated residual materials. Fragipan formation is favored in climates that promote a leaching environment under forest vegetation. Topographic effects on fragipan formation are suggested by the relationship between fragipan expression and depth and drainage. The degree of fragipan expression follows the trend: somewhat poorly drained > moderately well drained > well drained, while the depth to the top of the fragipan follows the opposite trend. Studies suggest that a weakly developed fragipan requires 6000 yr to form, while a strong fragipan requires 18000 yr. A four‐phase fragipan formation model is proposed for Pennsylvania fragipans. In Phase 1, transported parent material dries from the surface downward, forming prisms and the prism material is packed slightly. In Phase 2, clay and amorphous aluminosilicates are added to the prisms plugging some pores and creating brittleness by forming grain‐to‐grain contacts. Maximum fragipan expression occurs during this phase. The upper part of the prism begins to degrade during Phase 3 as more illuvial clay accumulates resulting in increased expansion and contraction during wetting and drying. The prisms are physically broken up and become a part of an overlying argillic horizon. The amorphous materials that formed the grain‐to‐grain bridges are leached from the upper part of the prism. By Phase 4, these processes have completely destroyed the fragipan.

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Results of a set of four regression models applied to recent survey data of farmers in eastern Nebraska suggest the causes that drive farmer intentions of using weather and climate information and forecasts in farming decisions. The model results quantify the relative importance of attitude, social norm, perceived behavioral control, and financial capability in explaining the influence of climate-conditions information and short-term and long-term forecasts on agronomic, crop insurance, and crop marketing decisions. Attitude, serving as a proxy for the utility gained from the use of such information, had the most profound positive influence on the outcome of all the decisions, followed by norms. The norms in the community, as a proxy for the utility gained from allowing oneself to be influenced by others, played a larger role in agronomic decisions than in insurance or marketing decisions. In addition, the interaction of controllability (accuracy, availability, reliability, timeliness of weather and climate information), self-efficacy (farmer ability and understanding), and general preference for control was shown to be a substantive cause. Yet control variables also have an economic side: The farm-sales variable as a measure of financial ability and motivation intensified and clarified the role of control while also enhancing the statistical robustness of the attitude and norms variables in better clarifying how they drive the influence. Overall, the integrated model of planned behavior from social psychology and derived demand from economics, that is, the "planned demand model," is more powerful than models based on either of these approaches alone. Taken together, these results suggest that the "human dimension" needs to be better recognized so as to improve effective use of climate and weather forecasts and information for farming decision making.