O estudo da susceptibilidade a erosão laminar é pertinente na mesorregião da Zona da Mata de Minas Gerais, visto a predominância da cobertura de pastagem e pela expressiva degradação do solo. Neste estudo, objetivou-se compreender quais variáveis geodinâmicas são importantes na predição dos processos erosivos laminares e o melhor modelo preditivo entre oito, através de comparações multicritérios, possibilitando entender o fenômeno em uma bacia hidrográfica da mesorregião. Assim, utilizou-se o método de atribuição de notas pela Literatura (L) e Realidade de campo (RC), cuja ponderação de parcela dos processos erosivos (60%) laminares mapeados ponderou a nota das classes das variáveis pela área das mesmas. A integração das variáveis foi por testes de ponderação e integração total e parcial. A avaliação dos modelos gerados foi por estatística descritiva (Box-Plot), diferentes métodos de categorização (Manual, Natural Breaks e Geometrical Interval) e curva ROC com cálculo de eficiência AUC (40% das erosões mapeadas). Os resultados apontaram que a falta umidade é um fator importante para a ocorrência dos processos erosivos laminares, por outro lado, as variáveis morfométricas não foram importantes para a predição. Modelos baseados na RC (72,41% AUC médio) obteve eficiência consideravelmente maior do que a L (65,41% AUC médio), já quando comparado a integração de todas as variáveis geodinâmicas e somente as mais importantes e quando integrado com ponderação e sem ponderação, não houve considerável diferença estatística. O modelo mais eficiente obteve 76,3% AUC, considerado boa e estava adequado a realidade da área estudada. Study of Susceptibility to Sheet Erosion in a Watershed in Zona da Mata, Minas Gerais, BrazilABSTRACTThe study of susceptibility to surface erosion is relevant in the mesoregion of the Zona da Mata of Minas Gerais, given the predominance of pasture cover, the significant degradation of the soil and the stagnation of the agricultural sector. In this study, the objective was to understand which geodynamic variables are important in the prediction of surface erosive processes and the best predictive model among eight, through multicriteria comparisons, making it possible to understand the phenomenon in a watershed in the mesoregion. Thus, it was used the method of attributing grades by Literature (L) and Field Reality (RC), whose weighting of the mapped surface erosive (60%) processes weighted the grade of the variable classes by their area. The integration of the variables was through weighting tests and total and partial integration. The evaluation of the models generated was by descriptive statistics (Box-Plot), different methods of categorization (Manual, Natural Breaks and Geometrical Interval) and ROC curve with AUC efficiency calculation (40% of the mapped erosions). The results showed that the lack of moisture is an important factor for the occurrence of surface erosive processes, on the other hand, the morphometric variables were not important for the prediction. Models based on RC (72.41% average AUC) achieved considerably greater efficiency than L (65.41% average AUC), when compared to the integration of all geodynamic variables and only the most important ones and when integrated with weighting and without weighting, there was no considerable statistical difference. The most efficient model obtained 76.3% AUC, considered good and was adequate to the reality of the studied area.Key words: Geotechnologies; Comparison of Risk Models; Multicriteria Analysis
Na cafeicultura, as intempéries afetam não somente as plantas, mas também as mulheres que atuam no processo produtivo dessa commodity. Logo, é necessário que as mulheres que trabalham na produção do café tenham maior conhecimento acerca das influências das Mudanças Climáticas na cafeicultura. Objetivou-se analisar a percepção das mulheres que trabalham na cafeicultura em 15 municípios localizados na região das Matas de Minas sobre a influência das mudanças climáticas na produção de café. Foram aplicados 67 questionários semiestruturados às mulheres em 15 municípios da região das Matas de Minas, os dados foram tabulados e foi identificado que a maior parte delas têm a televisão como principal fonte de informação sobre as mudanças climáticas globais e acreditam que tais mudanças não irão contribuir para a melhoria do café na região bem como podem influenciar na extinção da cafeicultura da região no futuro, interferindo assim, de alguma forma no futuro delas. De modo geral as mulheres que declararam ter conhecimento médio sobre mudanças climáticas e aquecimento global.
Created in 2014, the Serra da Gandarela National Park (SGNP), is repeatedly affected by wildfires. This Conservation Unit is located in the Iron Quadrangle (MG), in a transition zone between the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes, and is characterized by a complex mosaic of phytophysiognomies. The aim of this investigation was to compare the performance of two risk mapping models for forest fire in the SGNP and its surroundings, based on two different approaches, being one by multicriteria analysis, AHP method and the other a simple probability method, called Hot Spot History, which provided information on the areas of highest and lowest risk and their environmental and human characteristics. Spatial data from remote sensing and GIS were used to simulate, in sequence, the fire ignition, the fire spread and, finally, the risk of wildfire. The validation of the risk models was performed by the Kappa coefficient (K). The results showed that the model based on the History of Hot Points obtained greater accuracy (0.61) than the model generated by the AHP method (0.54). The Brazilian Savanna, Rupestrian Fields and Field coverings were the most susceptible to wildfire, as they are formed by herbaceous vegetations and are located very close to urban agglomerations and roads. The slopes oriented to the North and West were important for the prediction of wildfires slope and, on the other hand, the slope of the terrain was not important to discretize the areas of greater and lesser fragility to the referred ecological disturbance.
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