The demography and infection age play an important role in the spread of slowly progressive diseases. To investigate their effects on the disease spreading, we propose a pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography on dynamic networks. The basic reproduction number of this model is derived. It is proved that there is a disease-free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less that unity. Besides, sensitivity analysis is performed and shows that increasing the variance in recovery time and decreasing the variance in infection time can effectively control the diseases. The complex interaction between the death rate and equilibrium prevalence suggests that it is imperative to correctly estimate the parameters of demography in order to assess the disease transmission dynamics accurately. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.
In order to analyze the spread of avian influenza A (H7N9), we construct an avian influenza transmission model from poultry (including poultry farm, backyard poultry farm, live-poultry wholesale market, and wet market) to human according to poultry transport network. We obtain the threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza A (H7N9) and also give the existence and number of the boundary equilibria and endemic equilibria in different conditions. We can see that poultry transport network plays an important role in controlling avian influenza A (H7N9). Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effects of poultry in different places on avian influenza. In order to reduce human infections in China, our results suggest that closing the retail live-poultry market or preventing the poultry of backyard poultry farm into the live-poultry market is feasible in a suitable condition.
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