Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Model Based on Poultry Transport Network in China

Zhang, Juping; Jing, Wenjun; Zhang, Wenyi; Zhou, Jin

doi:10.1155/2018/7383170

Cited by 4 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…However, it does indicate that should any contamination of this kind occur, such viruses may remain viable on the crate surface after cleaning and treatment with disinfectant. The poultry transport chain is probabilistically the most important step in the spread of viruses such as Avian Influenza A H7N9 (Zhang et al ). It is, therefore, very important to determine if the washing of the crates is efficient at reducing the viral as well as the bacterial contamination.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An improved cleaning system to reduce microbial contamination of poultry transport crates in the United Kingdom

Atterbury

Gigante

Tinker³

et al. 2020

J Appl Microbiol

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Aim Following previous research on improving the cleaning of crates used to transport broiler chickens from the farm to the abattoir, a demonstration project was undertaken to investigate improvements in crate washing on a commercial scale. Methods and Results The soak tank of a conventional crate washing system was replaced with a high‐performance washer fitted with high‐volume, high‐pressure nozzles. The wash water could be heated, and a greatly improved filtration system ensured that the nozzles did not lose performance or become blocked. Visual cleanliness scores and microbial counts were determined for naturally contaminated crates which had been randomly assigned to different cleaning protocols. Conclusions When a combination of mechanical energy, heat and chemicals (i.e. detergent and disinfectant) was used, the results showed significant improvements to crate cleaning. Reductions of up to 3·6 and 3·8 log10 CFU per crate base were achieved for Campylobacter and Enterobacteriaceae, respectively, along with a marked improvement in visual cleanliness. Significance and Impact of the Study Broiler transport crates may become heavily contaminated with faeces and this may contribute to the spread of disease between farms. The results of this trial may be of use in reducing the spread of zoonotic pathogens in the poultry meat supply chain.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An improved cleaning system to reduce microbial contamination of poultry transport crates in the United Kingdom

Atterbury

Gigante

Tinker³

et al. 2020

J Appl Microbiol

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show abstract

“…is a positive invariant set of system (5). In the rest of this paper, we study the dynamical behaviors of the system in Ω. e disease-free steady state (DEF) of system ( 5) is E 0 � (0, 0, 1).…”

Section: Model Reduction and Steady Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the above analysis about the roots of equation ( 12), we obtain the distributions of endemic equilibria for system (5), which are shown in Table 1. It is obvious that the distributions of the endemic equilibria are complex, which means that there exist rich bifurcations in system (5). We will elucidate these bifurcations in Section 3.…”

Section: Model Reduction and Steady Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Theorem 2. Assume Δ 0 � 0. en, system (5) has an endemic equilibrium E � (P I , P SI , P SS ) of multiplicity 2 if one of the following is satisfied:…”

Section: Saddle-node and Hopf Bifurcationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Normile [4] described the network of SARS transmissions through hospitals and transportation. Zhang et al [5,6] modeled the transmission of H7N9 through transportation networks in China, respectively. Wang et al [7][8][9] studied the impact of virus transmission on the network of mobile devices, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Complex Behaviors of Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Rewiring Rate

2020

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An SIS propagation model with the nonlinear rewiring rate on an adaptive network is considered. It is found by bifurcation analysis that the model has the complex behaviors which include the transcritical bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation. Especially, a bifurcation curve with “S” shape emerges due to the nonlinear rewiring rate, which leads to multiple equilibria and twice saddle-node bifurcations. Numerical simulations show that the model admits a homoclinic bifurcation and a saddle-node bifurcation of the limit cycle.

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Detection of Infection Sources for Avian Influenza A(H7N9) in Live Poultry Transport Network During the Fifth Wave in China

Pei

Jin

Zhang³

et al. 2019

IEEE Access

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Numerous studies have demonstrated that exposure to live poultry or live poultry markets is the significant risk factor for human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9). However, the specific live poultry markets that are major infection sources for A(H7N9) human cases have not been explored in detail. In this study, we extract data associated with poultry farms, live poultry markets and farmers' markets from Baidu Map using the JavaScript language and then construct the live poultry transport network. From this, we establish our A(H7N9) transmission model over the network based upon probabilistic discrete-time Markov chain. On the basis of the obtained network and model, we propose spatiotemporal backward detection and forward transmission algorithms to detect the most likely infection sources and to compute the first arrival times of the infection sources. Our simulations use these algorithms to identify the specific locations of the infection sources, the first arrival times of the infection sources and the most likely transmission map of the A(H7N9) virus along the live poultry transport network. The results reveal that, in addition to the hazards posed by the live poultry markets, backyard poultry also contributed to A(H7N9) human infections; this risk source was significant especially in the newly affected provinces, in the fifth wave of infection. In particular, by analyzing the temperature characteristics at a given location when the infection source arrived, we find that the risk of human infection with the influenza A(H7N9) virus was high under 9 • C∼19 • C; moderate under 0 • C∼9 • C or 19 • C∼25 • C; and low for temperatures < 0 • C or > 25 • C. Our results suggest that strengthening the supervision of the live poultry market system and immunizing poultry at both live poultry markets and the backyard poultry operations under the high risk temperature band of 9 • C∼19 • C, will be able to significantly contribute to the control of avian influenza A(H7N9) in the future.INDEX TERMS Live poultry transport network, avian influenza A(H7N9), transmission model, detecting infection sources.

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Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Model Based on Poultry Transport Network in China

Cited by 4 publications

References 23 publications

An improved cleaning system to reduce microbial contamination of poultry transport crates in the United Kingdom

An improved cleaning system to reduce microbial contamination of poultry transport crates in the United Kingdom

Complex Behaviors of Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Rewiring Rate

Detection of Infection Sources for Avian Influenza A(H7N9) in Live Poultry Transport Network During the Fifth Wave in China

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