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The effect of exchange rate risk on export revenue in Taiwan between 1979 and 2001 is investigated in a bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time-varying risk. Depreciation is found to stimulate export revenue in domestic currency, but the quantitative impact is small and any associated increase in exchange risk has a negative impact. Implications for economic policy are discussed.

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Cointegration and vector autoregression are used to examine relationships among exports, imports, and income in Taiwan from 1971 to 1995. These three series are cointegrated. There is bidirectional Granger causality between exports and imports, and between imports and income. Impulse responses and variance decompositions uncover only weak links from exports to income. The export led growth hypothesis is not supported for Taiwan during this period of rapid growth. [F1, F4, O0]

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