The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on rainfall frequency in Taiwan. The changes in future precipitation were projected statistically from general circulation model (GCM) outputs. Based on five downscaled GCM outputs [China's FGOALS-g1.0, Japan's CGCM2.3.2, the USA's CM2.0, Canada's CGCM3(T47), and France's CM3] under the SRES A1B scenario, the frequency of the maximum consecutive dry days and maximum 1-, 2-, and 3-day rainfall during 2080 -2099 are evaluated and compared with those in the period of 1980 -1999. The results show that by the end of the 21 st century, the risk of droughts and floods over Taiwan has a tendency to increase. The distribution of water resources in Taiwan will be more uneven, with a noticeable change in the ratio of wet and dry seasons. Due to these climate change impacts, future water conservation work will be a major challenge for governments.
Abstract:The requirement for irrigation water would be affected by the variation of meteorological effects under the conditions of climate change, and irrigation water will always be the major portion of the water consumption in Taiwan. This study tries to assess the impact on irrigation water by climate change in Taoyuan in northern Taiwan. Projected rainfall and temperature during 2046-2065 are adopted from five downscaled general circulation models. The future evapotranspiration is derived from the Hamon method and corrected with the quadrant transformation method. Based on the projections and a water balance model in paddy fields, the future crop water requirement, effective rainfall and the demand for water for irrigation can be calculated. A comparison between the present (2004-2011) and the future (2046-2065) clearly shows that climate change would lead both rainfall and the temperature to rise; this would cause effective rainfall and crop water requirement to increase during cropping seasons in the future. Overall, growing effective rainfall neutralizes increasing crop water requirement, the difference of average irrigation water requirement between the present and future is insignificant (<2.5%). However, based on a five year return period, the future irrigation requirement is 7.1% more than the present in the first cropping season, but it is insignificantly less (2.1%) than the present in the second cropping season. OPEN ACCESSWater 2014, 6 3340
Extreme weather caused by global climate change affects slope-land in Taiwan, causing soil loss, floods, and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked second highest worldwide. With three-fourths of the island area being slope-land, soil and water conservation (SWC) is crucial. Therefore, because of the impact of climate and social change, the means of maintaining sustainable development of slope-land and the safety of the living environment in Taiwan is a developing and crucial issue. This study applied four foresight analysis tools that covered both qualitative and quantitative aspects, including international trend analysis, a focus group, the Delphi method, and a strategy roadmap. By combining the four analysis tools, we developed corresponding strategies to address climate change for use as references for policy-makers. The findings of this study can contribute to consensus-forming among multiple stakeholders on the sustainable development of soil and water resources and to devising foresight strategies for SWC in short-term, middle-term, and long-term bases. Ultimately, the goal of "considering climate and socioeconomic change, watershed resources being managed on a multiple-use basis to avoid disasters and to sustain SWC" can be realized by the year 2025.
This paper establishes a comprehensive assessment model to measure the regional impact of climate change on Taiwan's water resources. Working from future rainfall data simulated by Japan's high-resolution GCM model JMA/MRI TL959L60 in a SRES-A1B scenario, we first apply climate change to an assessment model of renewable water resources to estimate the volume of renewable water resources on a regional basis. We then conduct a water resources system simulation based on estimates of future water needs, regional reservoir effective capacity and renewable water resource volume. This paper uses three water resource assessment indicators: the annual water utilization ratio indicator, the water shortage indicator and the extreme event occurrence indicator. Through fuzzy comprehensive assessment, we divide the evaluation set into five levels: very good (L1), good (L2), fair (L3), poor (L4) and very poor (L5). Results indicate that, given the effects of future climate change (2080 -2099) and the increase in water demand, future water resources conditions in northern and eastern Taiwan will not be significantly different from historical levels (1979 -1998) and will maintain a "good" level (L2), while the conditions in southern Taiwan will visibly deteriorate from its historical "fair" level (L3) to "poor" (L4); and the future conditions for central Taiwan will be "poor" (L4). The initiation of adaptation options for water management in southern and central Taiwan would be needed by increasing reservoir capacity and reducing overall water use.
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