A B S T R A C T PurposeRecent increases in incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States have been attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but empirical evidence is lacking. Patients and MethodsHPV status was determined for all 271 oropharyngeal cancers collected by the three population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Residual Tissue Repositories Program by using polymerase chain reaction and genotyping (Inno-LiPA), HPV16 viral load, and HPV16 mRNA expression. Trends in HPV prevalence across four calendar periods were estimated by using logistic regression. Observed HPV prevalence was reweighted to all oropharyngeal cancers within the cancer registries to account for nonrandom selection and to calculate incidence trends. Survival of HPV-positive and HPV-negative patients was compared by using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses. ResultsHPV prevalence in oropharyngeal cancers significantly increased over calendar time regardless of HPV detection assay (P trend Ͻ .05). For example, HPV prevalence by Inno-LiPA increased from 16.3% during 1984 to 1989 to 71.7% during 2000 to 2004. Median survival was significantly longer for HPV-positive than for HPV-negative patients (131 v 20 months; log-rank P Ͻ .001; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.21 to 0.46). Survival significantly increased across calendar periods for HPV-positive (P ϭ .003) but not for HPV-negative patients (P ϭ .18). Population-level incidence of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers increased by 225% (95% CI, 208% to 242%) from 1988 to 2004 (from 0.8 per 100,000 to 2.6 per 100,000), and incidence for HPV-negative cancers declined by 50% (95% CI, 47% to 53%; from 2.0 per 100,000 to 1.0 per 100,000). If recent incidence trends continue, the annual number of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers is expected to surpass the annual number of cervical cancers by the year 2020. ConclusionIncreases in the population-level incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States since 1984 are caused by HPV infection.

HPV-16-positive HNSCCs and HPV-16-negative HNSCCs have different risk factor profiles, indicating that they should be considered to be distinct cancers.

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Genomic instability is a hallmark of human cancers, including the 5% caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). Here we report a striking association between HPV integration and adjacent host genomic structural variation in human cancer cell lines and primary tumors. Whole-genome sequencing revealed HPV integrants flanking and bridging extensive host genomic amplifications and rearrangements, including deletions, inversions, and chromosomal translocations. We present a model of ''looping'' by which HPV integrant-mediated DNA replication and recombination may result in viral-host DNA concatemers, frequently disrupting genes involved in oncogenesis and amplifying HPV oncogenes E6 and E7. Our high-resolution results shed new light on a catastrophic process, distinct from chromothripsis and other mutational processes, by which HPV directly promotes genomic instability.

Risk of oropharyngeal cancer progression and death increases directly as a function of tobacco exposure at diagnosis and during therapy and is independent of tumor p16 status and treatment.

Tumor human papillomavirus (HPV) status is a prognostic factor for oropharyngeal cancer, but classification methods are not standardized. Here we validate the HPV classification methods used in US cooperative group trials. Tumor DNA and RNA purified from 240 paraffin-embedded oropharyngeal cancers diagnosed from 2000 to 2009 were scored as evaluable if positive for DNA and mRNA controls by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Eighteen high-risk (HR) HPV types were detected in tumors by consensus PCR, followed by HR-HPV E6/7 oncogene expression analysis by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR. The sensitivity (S), specificity (SP), and positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of p16 expression detected by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and HPV16 detected by in situ hybridization (ISH) were evaluated in comparison with HR-HPV E6/7 oncogene expression. Interrater agreement among 3 pathologists was evaluated by κ statistics. Of 235 evaluable tumors, 158 (67%; 95% confidence interval, 61.2-73.3) were positive for HR-HPV E6/7 oncogene expression [HPV type 16 (92%), 18 (3%), 33 (3%), 35 (1%), or 58 (1%)]. p16 IHC had high sensitivity (S 96.8%, SP 83.8%, PPV 92.7%, and NPV 92.5%), whereas HPV16 ISH had high specificity (S 88.0%, SP 94.7%, PPV 97.2%, and NPV 78.9%) for HR-HPV oncogene expression. Interrater agreement was excellent for p16 (κ=0.95 to 0.98) and HPV16 ISH (κ=0.83 to 0.91). Receiver operating curve analysis determined the cross-product of p16 intensity score and percentage of tumor staining to optimally discriminate HR-HPV E6/7-positive and HR-HPV E6/7-negative tumors. p16 IHC and HPV16 ISH assays show excellent performance, with high sensitivity and specificity, respectively. A new validated H-score for p16 IHC assessment is proposed. Appropriate assay choice depends on clinical implications of a false-positive or false-negative test.

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The incidence of human papilloma virus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal cancers has risen rapidly in recent decades among men in the United States. We investigated the US population-level effect of prophylactic HPV vaccination on the burden of oral HPV infection, the principal cause of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study of men and women 18 to 33 years of age (N = 2,627) within the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011 to 2014, a representative sample of the US population. Oral HPV infection with vaccine types 16, 18, 6, or 11 was compared by HPV vaccination status, as measured by self-reported receipt of at least one dose of the HPV vaccine. Analyses accounted for the complex sampling design and were adjusted for age, sex, and race. Statistical significance was assessed using a quasi-score test. 2011 and 2014, 18.3% of the US population 18 to 33 years of age reported receipt of at least one dose of the HPV vaccine before the age of 26 years (29.2% in women and 6.9% in men; P , .001). The prevalence of oral HPV16/18/6/11 infections was significantly reduced in vaccinated versus unvaccinated individuals (0.11% v 1.61%; P adj = .008), corresponding to an estimated 88.2% (95% CI, 5.7% to 98.5%) reduction in prevalence after model adjustment for age, sex, and race. Notably, the prevalence of oral HPV16/18/6/11 infections was significantly reduced in vaccinated versus unvaccinated men (0.0% v 2.13%; P adj = .007). Accounting for vaccine uptake, the population-level effect of HPV vaccination on the burden of oral HPV16/18/6/11 infections was 17.0% overall, 25.0% in women, and 6.9% in men. Results Between ConclusionHPV vaccination was associated with reduction in vaccine-type oral HPV prevalence among young US adults. However, because of low vaccine uptake, the population-level effect was modest overall and particularly low in men.