Patients with acute dengue who present with high serum chymase levels are at greater risk of dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome. The chymase level is a prognostic biomarker of severe dengue for adult and pediatric patients before they develop clinical warning signs.

Mobility patterns and travel volumes can help to identify the most likely origin of importation, and also in predicting further propagation. Studies on pregnant returning travellers have contributed to a better understanding of the risk estimates of congenital Zika syndrome/microcephaly as a result of maternal ZIKV infection, and the relative contribution of sexual transmisison.

The prognosis of dengue remains a challenge in the early, objective triage of patients with dengue fever of differing severity. Circulating immuno-modulating proteins have brought new possibilities as prognostic markers of severe dengue (SD). This systematic review is devoted to understanding the potential utility of blood-based cytokines and chemokines as prognostication markers of SD based on the current literature. PubMed and Embase were searched. Of 794 candidate articles, 685 abstracts were screened against our exclusion/inclusion criteria and 25 (3.6 %) studies met the quality assessments. A total of 18 studies were retrospective observational and 2 were prospective cohort studies. Elevated IL-10, up to day 7 of fever onset, stood out as a candidate prognostic marker for SD using the 1997 and 2009 World Health Organization (WHO) case definitions. IFNg was another potential prognostic marker of SD (1997 WHO case definition), but its levels varied between studies. Significant heterogeneity in methodologies and patient cohorts prevent ready application of IL-10 and IFNg as prognostic markers to other dengue populations. Our results suggest that the current non-randomized studies are delivering inconsistent messages and higher-quality studies, with consistent methodologies and validation in independent patient cohorts, are needed to delineate confounding variables. Major gaps identified were full accounting and transparency of sampling days, dengue virus type, infection status and age group.

Rapid increase in trade and a growing air passenger market encourages high travel volume between the regions associated with increasing risks of such importations including China. Eleven Chinese workers infected during the 2016 yellow fever (YF) outbreak in Angola imported YF into China highlighting the potential for spread into Asia. Using outbound and inbound travel data, we assessed travel patterns from and to YF endemic countries in relation to China. Among YF endemic countries, Angola has the second highest number of travellers into China and also receives the second highest number of Chinese visitors. We estimated that China needs around half a million YF vaccine doses to cover their population travelling to YF endemic countries. The recent importation cases into China also unmasked the low YF vaccination coverage among Chinese travellers and workers to Angola, indicating the need to ensure better adherence to the International Health Regulations.

To investigate to what extent asymptomatic vs symptomatic prenatal Zika virus infections contribute to birth defects, we identified 3 prospective and 8 retrospective studies. The ratio varied greatly in the retrospective studies, most likely due to recruitment and recall bias. The prospective studies revealed a ratio of 1:1 for asymptomatic vs symptomatic maternal Zika infections resulting in adverse fetal outcomes.

BackgroundThe endgame of polio eradication is hampered by the international spread of poliovirus via travelers. In response to ongoing importations of poliovirus into polio-free countries, on 5 May 2014, WHO’s Director-General declared the international spread of wild poliovirus a public health emergency of international concern. Our objective was to develop a mathematical model to estimate the international spread of polio infections.MethodsOur model took into account polio endemicity in polio-infected countries, population size, polio immunization coverage rates, infectious period, the asymptomatic-to-symptomatic ratio, and also the probability of a traveler being infectious at the time of travel. We applied our model to three scenarios: (1) number of exportations of both symptomatic and asymptomatic polio infections out of currently polio-infected countries, (2) the risk of spread of poliovirus to Saudi Arabia via Hajj pilgrims, and (3) the importation risk of poliovirus into India.ResultsOur model estimated 665 polio exportations (>99 % of which were asymptomatic) from nine polio-infected countries in 2014, of which 78.3 % originated from Pakistan. Our model also estimated 21 importations of poliovirus into Saudi Arabia via Hajj pilgrims and 20 poliovirus infections imported to India in the same year.ConclusionThe extent of importations of asymptomatic and symptomatic polio infections is substantial. For countries that are vulnerable to polio outbreaks due to poor national polio immunization coverage rates, our newly developed model may help guide policy-makers to decide whether imposing an entry requirement in terms of proof of vaccination against polio would be justified.

Dengue induces a spectrum of severity in humans from the milder dengue fever to severe disease, or dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Chymase is a candidate biomarker that may aid dengue prognosis. This prospective study aimed to identify whether warning signs of severe dengue, including hypovolemia and fluid accumulation, were associated with elevated chymase. Serum chymase levels were quantified prospectively and longitudinally in hospitalized pediatric dengue patients in Sri Lanka. Warning signs were determined based on daily clinical assessments, laboratory tests and ultrasound findings. Chymase was significantly elevated during the acute phase of disease in DHF or Severe dengue, defined by either the 1997 or 2009 WHO diagnosis guidelines, and persisted longer in the most severe patients. chymase levels were higher in patients with narrow pulse pressure and clinical warning signs such as severe leakage, fluid accumulation, pleural effusion, gall-bladder wall thickening and rapid haematocrit rise concurrent with thrombocytopenia. no association between chymase and liver enlargement was observed. This study confirms that serum chymase levels are associated with DHf/Severe dengue disease in hospitalized pediatric patients. chymase levels correlate with warning signs of vascular dysfunction highlighting the possible functional role of chymase in vascular leakage during dengue. Dengue virus (DENV) is one of the most important human pathogens and infects between 50 and 390 million people each year 1. DENV is now endemic in over 100 countries worldwide and one estimate suggests that ~ 3.9 billion people are at risk for contracting the disease 2,3. Increasingly, international travelers are also affected 4-7. In Sri Lanka (the site for this study), a major outbreak of dengue occurred in 2017, resulting in ~ 185,000 clinical cases 8. The burden of dengue is also high in other Southeast Asian countries including Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines where there were nearly 1,400 DENV-related deaths reported in 2017 alone 9. DENV is spread to humans by mosquito bites, primarily by Aedes aegypti, and causes a febrile illness known as dengue fever (DF). In some cases, patients can develop a severe and life-threatening form of dengue disease known as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) 10,11. In 2009, the WHO published a reclassification of the dengue case classification as "dengue with or without warning signs" and "Severe dengue" 12. Most DHF cases and all DSS cases are reclassified as Severe dengue in this new system.

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