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Aims/hypothesis A range of prediction rules for the onset of type 2 diabetes have been proposed. However, most studies have been conducted in white groups and it is not clear whether these models apply to Asian populations. The purpose of this study was to construct a simple points model for predicting incident diabetes among Chinese people.Methods We estimated the 10 year risk of diabetes in a cohort study of middle-aged and elderly participants who were free from diabetes at baseline. Cox regression coefficients were used to construct the simple points model and the discriminatory ability of the resulting prediction rule was determined using AUC and net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement statistics. Fivefold random splitting was used to test the internal validity and obtain bootstrap estimates of the AUC. Results Of the 2,960 participants without diabetes at the baseline examination, 548 developed type 2 diabetes during a median 10 year follow-up period. Age (four points), elevated fasting glucose (11 points), body mass index (eight points), triacylglycerol (five points), white blood cell count (four points) and a higher HDL-cholesterol (negative four points) were found to strongly predict diabetes incidence in a multivariate model. The estimated AUC for the model was 0.702 (95% CI 0.676-0.727). This model performed better than existing prediction models developed in other populations, including the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster, Cambridge, San Antonia and Framingham models for diabetes risk. Conclusions/interpretation We have constructed a model for predicting the 10 year incidence of diabetes in Chinese people that could be useful for identifying individuals at high risk of diabetes in the Chinese population.

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BACKGROUND:Previous cross-sectional studies have shown hyperuricemia to be prevalent among individuals with metabolic syndrome, but the evidence from prospective studies of an association between uric acid and diabetes risk is limited. We prospectively investigated the association between plasma concentrations of uric acid and the incidence of type 2 diabetes in Chinese individuals.

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Hawthorn (Crataegus) may play a role in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and in particular, congestive heart failure. Evidence is accumulating that hawthorn may induce anti-ischemia/reperfusion-injury, anti-arrhythmic, hypolipidemic and hypotensive effects. These beneficial effects may in part be due to the presence of antioxidant flavonoid components. While a number of studies have been performed to evaluate the clinical efficacy of hawthorn, an international, multicenter, prospective clinical study including a large number of New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II/III heart failure patients is ongoing to test hawthorn's long-term therapeutic effects. Further clinical trials as well as pharmacokinetic and mechanistic studies are needed to explore and confirm its effectiveness, safety and pharmacological mechanism.