Summary Background Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Funding Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundThe transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission.ObjectiveWe examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China.MethodsWe obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission.ResultsCross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS.ConclusionsClimate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Microbiota have recently been shown to be associated with many disease conditions. However, the microbiota associated with tuberculosis (TB) infection, recurrence and treatment outcome have not been systematically characterized. Here, we used high throughput 16S RNA sequencing to analyze the sputum microbiota associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and also to identify the microorganisms associated with different outcomes of TB treatment. We recruited 25 new TB patients, 30 recurrent TB patients and 20 TB patients with treatment failure, as well as 20 healthy controls. Streptococcus, Gramulicatella and Pseudomonas were more abundant in TB patients while Prevotella, Leptotrichia, Treponema, Catonella and Coprococcus were less abundant in TB patients than in the healthy controls. We found reduced frequency and abundance of some genera such as Bulleidia and Atopobium in recurrent TB patients compared with those in new TB patients. In addition, the ratio of Pseudomonas / Mycobacterium in recurrent TB was higher than that in new TB while the ratio of Treponema / Mycobacterium in recurrent TB was lower than that in new TB, indicating that disruption of these bacteria may be a risk factor of TB recurrence. Furthermore, Pseudomonas was more abundant and more frequently present in treatment failure patients than in cured new patients, and the ratio of Pseudomonas / Mycobacterium in treatment failure was higher than that in new TB. Our data suggest that the presence of certain bacteria and the disorder of lung microbiota may be associated with not only onset of TB but also its recurrence and treatment failure. These findings indicate that lung microbiota may play a role in pathogenesis and treatment outcome of TB and may need to be taken into consideration for improved treatment and control of TB in the future.

HCV is highly prevalent in IDUs throughout southern China. In Guangxi, HIV infections are the result of parenteral and sexual transmission, and, therefore, all IDUs are at high risk of coinfection with HIV and HCV. Molecular tracking of HCV may be a more sensitive predictor of the future spread of the HIV-1 epidemic than is HIV subtyping. This study emphasizes that, without implementation of injection prevention and primary substance abuse programs in China, the extent and effect of coinfection with HIV and HCV will only increase.

Healthcare professionals should work with gatekeepers to create a supportive local environment for condom use in sex work establishments. Gatekeepers need to clearly articulate their support for condom use to the FSWs. Training and skill acquisition regarding correct use of condoms among FSWs will be necessary.