Climate Variability and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Transmission in Northeastern China

Abstract

BackgroundThe transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission.ObjectiveWe examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China.MethodsWe obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission.ResultsCross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS.ConclusionsClimate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Association between Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Epidemic and Climate Factors in Heilongjiang Province, China

“…Although one study reported that relative humidity may contribute to the high incidence of HFRS in northeastern China, 25 another study reported that associations between HFRS epidemics and precipitation, as well as relative humidity, were not significant. 37 In our study we found that relative humidity three months before analysis had a positive effect on the incidence of monthly HFRS cases, which was consistent with our previous study in northeastern China.…”

“…Time series analysis has been extensively used to study the association between climate variability and disease transmission. 25,27,28 More specifically, the SARIMA models are an available approach for interpreting and applying surveillance data in disease control, prevention, and forecast. 29 The SARIMA models are especially useful in modeling the temporal-dependent structure of time series data with the adjustment of the impact of seasonal and interannual tendency.…”

“…In addition, the cubic root transformation was also applied to the monthly maximum temperature and SOI. 25,27 In this study, data analysis was performed by using SAS version 9.2 software. 33 …”

“…Until now, there have been no studies conducted that quantified the relationship between climate variation and transmission of HFRS in Heilongjiang Province and few studies in China. 7,8,20,21,25 The purpose of this study was to quantify the relationship between incidence of HFRS and climate in Heilongjiang Province. An additional objective was to develop a climatebased epidemic forecasting model to assist monitoring of HFRS incidence in the region to inform public health policy in Heilongjiang Province on the basis of changes in particular environmental variables.…”

Effects of Humidity Variation on the Hantavirus Infection and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Occurrence in Subtropical China

“…15 Since the first HFRS case was detected in 1963, it has become a serious public health problem in China with Hunan Province being one of the most severe endemic areas, with more than 90% of cities reporting cases over this period. 16,17 Changsha, Xiangtan, Zhuzhou, Hengyang, Shuangfeng, and Shaodong, subtropical cities in Hunan Province, are main epidemic areas of HFRS.…”