Association between Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Epidemic and Climate Factors in Heilongjiang Province, China

Abstract

Abstract. The purpose of this study was to quantify the relationship between climate variation and transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Heilongjiang Province, a highly endemic area for HFRS in China. Monthly notified HFRS cases and climatic data for [2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009] in Heilongjiang Province were collected. Using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, we found that relative humidity with a one-month lag (β = -0.010, P = 0.003) and a three-month lag (β = 0.008, P = 0.003), maximum temperature with a two-month lag (β = 0.082, P = 0.028), and southern oscillation index with a two-month lag (β = -0.048, P = 0.019) were significantly associated with HFRS transmission. Our study also showed that predicted values expected under the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model were highly consistent with observed values (Adjusted R 2 = 83%, root mean squared error = 108). Thus, findings may help add to the knowledge gap of the role of climate factors in HFRS transmission in China and also assist national local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better strategy to prevent HFRS transmission.

Transmission of Haemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China and the Role of Climate Factors: A Review

“…incidence 3,15,21,24-27 others a negative relationship 7,9,14,18,19 or no association at all. 11 Generally, plentiful rainfall is a risk factor for an HFRS outbreak in forthcoming months. 24 Low-lying regions and wetlands with moist soil are ideal habitats for mice and present an increased risk for disease transmission.…”

“…Land surface temperature directly influences the distribution and abundance of A. agrarius populations, 27 whereas ambient temperature considers impacts on both mice and human behaviour. Associations between temperature and HFRS incidence were both positive 11,15,18,21,[25][26][27][28] and negative. 7 Also found was an association between temperature and rodent density 11,12 but no significant association with incidence.…”

“…It has now been noted in all 31 provinces 10 and is endemic in 28 of these. 8,11 The etiologic agents of HFRS are single-stranded RNA viruses of the genus Hantavirus. Of the seven sero/genotypes of hantaviruses in China, 6 it is mainly Seoul virus (SEOV) and Hantaan virus (HTNV) that cause HFRS, the latter being responsible for up to 70% of cases.…”

A Space-Time Study of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) and Its Climatic Associations in Heilongjiang Province, China

“…To the best of our knowledge, very few studies have used analytical methods to describe the space-time HFRS spread in Heilongjiang province. On the other hand, the associations between HFRS incidence and climate factors have been always assessed in terms of numerical modeling, for example, autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), ecological niche models (ENM), Poisson regression models, multiple regression, conditional logistic regression, and principal components regression (PCR) models [25,34,[45][46][47][48]. Interestingly, none of these studies explored the association between HFRS incidence and climatic factors in the context of their co-variation.…”

“…Remarkably, the Heilongjiang province is one of the highest HFRS morbidity regions in China [34]. The Heilongjiang basin includes four major river systems: the Heilong, Songhua, Wusuli, and Suifen rivers (Figure 1).…”