Background— Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050. Methods and Results— The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly ( P =0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age-adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women ( P =0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age-adjusted incidence of AF, but 15.9 million if the increase in incidence continues. Conclusions— The age-adjusted incidence of AF increased significantly in Olmsted County during 1980 to 2000. Whether or not this rate of increase continues, the projected number of persons with AF for the United States will exceed 10 million by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for primary prevention strategies against AF development.

The use of low-dose aspirin as a primary prevention strategy in older adults resulted in a significantly higher risk of major hemorrhage and did not result in a significantly lower risk of cardiovascular disease than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; ASPREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01038583 .).

Long-term sustained weight loss is associated with significant reduction of AF burden and maintenance of sinus rhythm. (Long-Term Effect of Goal directed weight management on Atrial Fibrillation Cohort: A 5 Year follow-up study [LEGACY Study]; ACTRN12614001123639).

Aggressive RFM improved the long-term success of AF ablation. This study underscores the importance of therapy directed at the primary promoters of the AF substrate to facilitate rhythm control strategies.

Higher all-cause mortality was observed among apparently healthy older adults who received daily aspirin than among those who received placebo and was attributed primarily to cancer-related death. In the context of previous studies, this result was unexpected and should be interpreted with caution. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; ASPREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01038583 .).

Left atrial volume is a more robust marker of cardiovascular events than LA area or diameter in subjects with sinus rhythm. The predictive utility of LA size for cardiovascular events in AF was poor, irrespective of the method of LA size quantitation.

IMPORTANCE Obesity is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation. Whether weight reduction and cardiometabolic risk factor management can reduce the burden of atrial fibrillation is not known. OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of weight reduction and management of cardiometabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation burden and cardiac structure. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Single-center, partially blinded, randomized controlled study conducted between June 2010 and December 2011 in Adelaide, Australia, among overweight and obese ambulatory patients (N = 150) with symptomatic atrial fibrillation. Patients underwent a median of 15 months of follow-up. INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to weight management (intervention) or general lifestyle advice (control). Both groups underwent intensive management of cardiometabolic risk factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcomes were Atrial Fibrillation Severity Scale scores: symptom burden and symptom severity. Scores were measured every 3 months from baseline to 15 months. Secondary outcomes performed at baseline and 12 months were total atrial fibrillation episodes and cumulative duration measured by 7-day Holter, echocardiographic left atrial area, and interventricular septal thickness. RESULTS Of 248 patients screened, 150 were randomized (75 per group) and underwent follow-up. The intervention group showed a significantly greater reduction, compared with the control group, in weight (14.3 and 3.6 kg, respectively; P < .001) and in atrial fibrillation symptom burden scores (11.8 and 2.6 points, P < .001), symptom severity scores (8.4 and 1.7 points, P < .001), number of episodes (2.5 and no change, P = .01), and cumulative duration (692-minute decline and 419-minute increase, P = .002). Additionally, there was a reduction in interventricular septal thickness in the intervention and control groups (1.1 and 0.6 mm, P = .02) and left atrial area (3.5 and 1.9 cm 2 , P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, weight reduction with intensive risk factor management resulted in a reduction in atrial fibrillation symptom burden and severity and in beneficial cardiac remodeling. These findings support therapy directed at weight and risk factors in the management of atrial fibrillation.

Aspirin use in healthy elderly persons did not prolong disability-free survival over a period of 5 years but led to a higher rate of major hemorrhage than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; ASPREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01038583 .).