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In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

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The Gulf of Maine, NW Atlantic Ocean, is a productive, seasonal foraging ground for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus), but commercial landings of adult size classes were up to 40% below the allocated total allowable catch between 2004 to 2008 for the rod and reel, harpoon, and purse seine categories in the Gulf of Maine. Reduction in Atlantic bluefin tuna catches in the Gulf of Maine could represent a decline in spawning stock biomass, but given wide-ranging, complex migration patterns, and high energetic requirements, an alternative hypothesis is that their dispersal patterns shifted to regions with higher prey abundance or profitability, reducing availability to U.S. fishing fleets. This study fit generalized linear models to Atlantic bluefin tuna landings data collected from fishermen’s logbooks (1979-2005) as well as the distances between bluefin tuna schools and Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ), a primary prey species, to test alternative hypotheses for observed shifts in Atlantic bluefin tuna availability in the Gulf of Maine. For the bluefin model, landings varied by day of year, latitude and longitude. The effect of latitude differed by day of year and the effect of longitude differed by year. The distances between Atlantic bluefin tuna schools and Atlantic herring schools were significantly smaller (p<0.05) than would be expected from a randomly distributed population. A time series of average bluefin tuna school positions was positively correlated with the average number of herring captured per tow on Georges Bank in spring and autumn surveys respectively (p<0.01, r2=0.24, p<0.01, r2=0.42). Fishermen’s logbooks contributed novel spatial and temporal information towards testing these hypotheses for the bluefin tuna fishery.

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