The prediction of the arrival time and transit speed of CMEs near the Earth is one of the key problems in understanding the solar terrestrial relationship.Although, STEREO observations now provide a multiple view of CMEs in the heliosphere, the true speeds derived from stereoscopic reconstruction of SECCHI coronagraph data are not quite sufficient in accurate forecasting of arrival time of a majority of CMEs at the Earth. This is due to many factors which change the CME kinematics, like interaction of two or more CMEs or the interaction of CMEs with the pervading solar wind. In order to understand the propagation of CMEs, we have used the 3D triangulation method on SECCHI coronagraph (COR2) images, and geometric triangulation on the J-maps constructed from Heliospheric Imagers HI1 and HI2 images for eight Earth-directed CMEs observed during 2008-2010. Based on the reconstruction, and implementing the Drag Based Model for the distance where the CMEs could not be tracked unambiguously in the interplanetary medium, the arrival time of these CMEs have been estimated. These arrival times have also been compared with the actual arrival time as observed by in-situ instruments. The analysis reveals the importance of heliospheric imaging for improved forecasting of the arrival time and direction of propagation of CMEs in the interplanetary medium.

Understanding of the kinematic evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere is important to estimate their arrival time at the Earth. It is found that kinematics of CMEs can change when they interact or collide with each other as they propagate in the heliosphere. In this paper, we analyze the collision and post-interaction characteristics of two Earth-directed CMEs, launched successively on 2012 November 9 and 10, using white light imaging observations from STEREO/SECCHI and in situ observations taken from WIND spacecraft. We tracked two density enhanced features associated with leading and trailing edge of November 9 CME and one density enhanced feature associated with leading edge of November 10 CME by constructing J-maps. We found that the leading edge of November 10 CME interacted with the trailing edge of November 9 CME. We also estimated the kinematics of these features of the CMEs and found a significant change in their dynamics after interaction. In in situ observations, we identified distinct structures associated with interacted CMEs and also noticed their heating and compression as signatures of CME-CME interaction. Our analysis shows an improvement in arrival time prediction of CMEs using their post-collision dynamics than using pre-collision dynamics. Estimating the true masses and speeds of these colliding CMEs, we investigated the nature of observed collision which is found to be close to perfectly inelastic. The investigation also places in perspective the geomagnetic consequences of the two CMEs and their interaction in terms of occurrence of geomagnetic storm and triggering of magnetospheric substorms.

We have studied two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that occurred on 25 and 28 September 2012 and interacted near the Earth. By fitting the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model on the SECCHI/COR2 images and applying the Stereoscopic Self‐Similar Expansion method on the SECCHI/HI images, the initial direction of both the CMEs is estimated to be west of the Sun‐Earth line. Further, the three‐dimensional (3‐D) heliospheric kinematics of these CMEs have been estimated using Self‐Similar Expansion (SSE) reconstruction method. We show that the use of SSE method with different values of angular extent of the CMEs leads to significantly different kinematics estimates for the CMEs propagating away from the observer. Using the estimated kinematics and true masses of the CMEs, we have derived the coefficient of restitution for the collision which is found to be close to elastic. The in situ measurements at 1 AU show two distinct structures of interplanetary CMEs, heating of the following CME, and ongoing interaction between the preceding and the following CME. We highlight the signatures of interaction in remote and in situ observations of these CMEs and the role of interaction in producing a major geomagnetic storm.

A study of the kinematics and arrival times of CMEs at Earth, derived from time-elongation maps (J-maps) constructed from STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations, provides an opportunity to understand the heliospheric evolution of CMEs in general. We implement various reconstruction techniques, based on the use of time-elongation profiles of propagating CMEs viewed from single or multiple vantage points, to estimate the dynamics of three geo-effective CMEs. We use the kinematic properties, derived from analysis of the elongation profiles, as inputs to the Drag Based Model for the distance beyond which the CMEs cannot be tracked unambiguously in the J-maps. The ambient solar wind into which these CMEs, which travel with different speeds, are launched, is different. Therefore, these CMEs will evolve differently throughout their journey from the Sun to 1 AU. We associate the CMEs, identified and tracked in the J-maps, with signatures observed in situ near 1 AU by the WIND spacecraft. By deriving the kinematic properties of each CME, using a variety of existing methods, we assess the relative performance of each method for the purpose of space weather forecasting. We discuss the limitations of each method, and identify the major constraints in predicting the arrival time of CMEs near 1 AU using heliospheric imager observations.

During 2011 February 13 to 15, three Earth-directed CMEs launched in successively were recorded as limb CMEs by coronagraphs (COR) of STEREO. These CMEs provided an opportunity to study their geometrical and kinematic evolution from multiple vantage points. In this paper, we examine the differences in geometrical evolution of slow and fast speed CMEs during their propagation in the heliosphere. We also study their interaction and collision using STEREO/SECCHI COR and Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations. We have found evidence of interaction and collision between the CMEs of February 15 and 14 in COR2 and HI1 FOV, respectively, while the CME of February 14 caught the CME of February 13 in HI2 FOV. By estimating the true mass of these CMEs and using their pre and post-collision dynamics, the momentum and energy exchange between them during collision phase are studied. We classify the nature of observed collision between CME of February 14 and 15 as inelastic, reaching close to elastic regime. Relating imaging observations with the in situ measurements, we find that the CMEs move adjacent to each other after their collision in the heliosphere and are recognized as distinct structures in in situ observations by WIND spacecraft at L1. Our results highlight the significance of HI observations in studying CME-CME collision for the purpose of improved space weather forecasting.

We present an investigation of an eruption event of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic flux rope (MFR) from source active region (AR) NOAA 11719 on 11 April 2013 utilizing observations from SDO, STEREO, SOHO, and WIND spacecraft. The source AR consists of pre-existing sigmoidal structure stacked over a filament channel which is regarded as MFR system. EUV observations of low corona suggest a further development of this MFR system by added axial flux through tether-cutting reconnection of loops at the middle of sigmoid under the influence of continuous slow flux motions during past two days. Our study implies that the MFR system in the AR is initiated to upward motion by kink-instability and further driven by torus-instability. The CME morphology, captured in simultaneous three-point coronagraph observations, is fitted with Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model and discerns an MFR topology with orientation aligning with magnetic neutral line in the source AR. This MFR expands self-similarly and is found to have source AR twist signatures in the associated near Earth magnetic cloud (MC). We further derived kinematics of this CME propagation by employing a plethora of stereoscopic as well as single spacecraft reconstruction techniques. While stereoscopic methods perform relatively poorly compared to other methods, fitting methods worked best in estimating the arrival time of the CME compared to in-situ measurements. Supplied with values of constrained solar wind velocity, drag parameter and 3D kinematics from GCS fit, we construct CME kinematics from the drag based model consistent with in-situ MC arrival.

Earlier studies on Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), using remote sensing and in situ observations, have attempted to determine some of the internal properties of CMEs, which were limited to a certain position or a certain time. For understanding the evolution of the internal thermodynamic state of CMEs during their heliospheric propagation, we improve the selfsimilar flux rope internal state (FRIS) model, which is constrained by measured propagation and expansion speed profiles of a CME. We implement the model to a CME erupted on 2008 December 12 and probe the internal state of the CME. It is found that the polytropic index of the CME plasma decreased continuously from 1.8 to 1.35 as the CME moved away from the Sun, implying that the CME released heat before it reached adiabatic state and then absorbed heat. We further estimate the entropy changing and heating rate of the CME. We also find that the thermal force inside the CME is the internal driver of CME expansion while Lorentz force prevented the CME from expanding. It is noted that centrifugal force due to poloidal motion decreased with the fastest rate and Lorentz force decreased slightly faster than thermal pressure force as CME moved away from the Sun. We also discuss the limitations of the model and approximations made in the study.

Our study attempts to understand the collision characteristics of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched successively from the Sun on 2013 October 25. The estimated kinematics, from three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction techniques applied to observations of CMEs by SECCHI/Coronagraphic (COR) and Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), reveal their collision around 37 R ⊙ from the Sun. In the analysis, we take into account the propagation and expansion speeds, impact direction, angular size as well as the masses of the CMEs. These parameters are derived from imaging observations, but may suffer from large uncertainties. Therefore, by adopting head-on as well as oblique collision scenarios, we have quantified the range of uncertainties involved in the calculation of the coefficient of restitution for expanding magnetized plasmoids. Our study shows that the comparatively large expansion speed of the following CME than that of the preceding CME, results in a higher probability of super-elastic collision. We also infer that a relative approaching speed of the CMEs lower than the sum of their expansion speeds increases the chance of super-elastic collision. The analysis under a reasonable errors in observed parameters of the CME, reveals the larger probability of occurrence of an inelastic collision for the selected CMEs. We suggest that the collision nature of two CMEs should be discussed in 3D, and the calculated value of the coefficient of restitution may suffer from a large uncertainty.