This paper presents a standalone predictive model for Atomic Oxygen (AO), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and other space-environment parameters. The prediction is based on the numerical method of Holt–Winter’s triple smooth exponential forecasting of atmospheric constituents. Solar cycle 25 is likely to show about the same activity as cycle 23. The corresponding AO-flux–solar-activity correlation coefficients for altitudes 100, 200, and 300 km are: 0.62, 0.53, and 0.48, respectively, while the correlation coefficients for higher altitudes are lower than 0.48, an advantage that makes them more favorable for LEOs due to the harmful corrosive effects.
Satellite protection depends greatly on good prediction of the surrounding space environment components and hazards. The space environment of the Low Earth Orbits (LEOs) is highly affected by solar activity. This paper presents a standalone predictive model for Atomic Oxygen (AO), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and other space environment parameters. The prediction is based on the numerical method of Holt Winter's triple smooth exponential forecasting of atmospheric constituents (density ‘ρ’, temperature ‘T’, Argon ‘Ar’, Helium ‘He’, Nitrogen molecules ‘N2’ and atoms ‘N’, Oxygen molecules ‘O2’ and atomic Oxygen ‘AO’, solar irradiance, CME central Position Angle ‘PA’, linear speed, mass, angular width and Measurement of Position Angle ‘MPA’ as well as the output life time of the orbit. Some statistical analyses are performed for the verification of the model. The present study focuses on the prediction of AO, CME, density, temperature and Hydrogen atoms. This study recommends the continuous development and improvements of mathematical models for predicting solar activity and its impacts on the LEOs space environment.
The article presents a retrospective review of atomic oxygen (AO) research in low Earth orbit (LEO).The space environment of LEO is a barrier to all satellites passing through it. Several of its constituent parts pose a great danger to satellite materials and subsystems. Such orbits are convenient for remote sensing and experimental satellites. In order to maintain the operational level of spacecraft, it is necessary to carry out thorough studies of the LEO environment and its components. AO, which is a hyperactive state of oxygen, is considered one of the most dangerous components of the LEO environment. It can react with many materials and thereby change the physical, optical and mechanical properties that affect the functionality of the satellite. To maintain the satellite in its orbit with a certain margin of reliability, it is necessary to reduce the aggressive influence on it of the environmental components of LEO. Predicting the impact of AO on materials that will be used in space ensures their correct selection. The work provides some recommendations for the creation of AO facilities for testing materials exposed to the aggressive influence of the space environment.
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