A Standalone Prediction Model for Atomic Oxygen, Coronal Mass Ejections and Relevant Space Environment Parameters

Abstract

Satellite protection depends greatly on good prediction of the surrounding space environment components and hazards. The space environment of the Low Earth Orbits (LEOs) is highly affected by solar activity. This paper presents a standalone predictive model for Atomic Oxygen (AO), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and other space environment parameters. The prediction is based on the numerical method of Holt Winter's triple smooth exponential forecasting of atmospheric constituents (density ‘ρ’, temperature ‘T’, Argon ‘Ar’, Helium ‘He’, Nitrogen molecules ‘N2’ and atoms ‘N’, Oxygen molecules ‘O2’ and atomic Oxygen ‘AO’, solar irradiance, CME central Position Angle ‘PA’, linear speed, mass, angular width and Measurement of Position Angle ‘MPA’ as well as the output life time of the orbit. Some statistical analyses are performed for the verification of the model. The present study focuses on the prediction of AO, CME, density, temperature and Hydrogen atoms. This study recommends the continuous development and improvements of mathematical models for predicting solar activity and its impacts on the LEOs space environment.