In this paper, railway passenger flows are analyzed and a suitable modeling method proposed. Based on historical data composed from monthly passenger counts realized on Serbian railway network it is concluded that the time series has a strong autocorrelation of seasonal characteristics. In order to deal with seasonal periodicity, Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is applied for fitting and forecasting the time series that spans over the January 2004-June 2014 periods. Experimental results show good prediction performances. Therefore, developed SARIMA model can be considered for forecasting of monthly passenger flows on Serbian railways.
In our study we concern with the quantification of the weighted average cost of capital, as the minimization criterion for the company capital structure optimization. To achieve more accurate estimation of the costs of capital we calculated them using four models with weights assigned on the basis of their explanatory power of the particular company. In the next step, the possibility of application of individual models and their explanatory power in the countries with poorly developed capital markets, where the necessary data for the calculations absent and there is the impact of the financial crisis, is determined. Our aim in further research is to design company liability management methodology which contains other optimization criteria.
Railway transport involves the expenditure of resources on a combination of investment in capital items (e.g. stations, tracks, equipment) and/or in operations (e.g. subsidies). Concerning the fact that there are limited amounts of resources, it is necessary to maximize the returns obtained from the investments of those resources. The best way to do this is to ensure that the resources will be allocated on those projects that maximize their return. Railway appraisals therefore represent a way of thinking about all the costs and benefits of different railway related spending projects in a systematic manner so that, the projects can be compared and investments made in those which are going to provide the maximum possible return on the investment. This chapter provides a review of the main analytical tools that should be used in the process of railway investments appraisal. Namely, a detailed description of discounting, Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is covered by this chapter.
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