SummaryBackgroundUnderstanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts —and alternative future scenarios—for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories.MethodsWe modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990–2016, to generate predictions for 2017–40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990–2006 and using these to forecast for 2007–16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990–2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future.FindingsGlobally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9...

This WHO/ISUP system is an attempt to develop as broad a consensus as possible in the classification of urothelial neoplasms, building upon earlier works and classification systems. It is meant to serve as a springboard for future studies that will help refine this classification, thus enabling us to provide better correlation of these lesions with their biologic behavior using uniform terminology.

Metastasis-initiating cells with stem-like properties drive cancer lethality, yet their origins and relationship to primary-tumorinitiating stem cells are not known. We show that L1CAM + cells in human colorectal cancer (CRC) have metastasis-initiating capacity, and we define their relationship to tissue regeneration. L1CAM is not expressed in the homeostatic intestinal epithelium, but is induced and required for epithelial regeneration following colitis and in CRC organoid growth. By using human tissues and mouse models, we show that L1CAM is dispensable for adenoma initiation but required for orthotopic carcinoma propagation, liver metastatic colonization and chemoresistance. L1CAM high cells partially overlap with LGR5 high stem-like cells in human CRC organoids. Disruption of intercellular epithelial contacts causes E-cadherin-REST transcriptional derepression of L1CAM, switching chemoresistant CRC progenitors from an L1CAM low to an L1CAM high state. Thus, L1CAM dependency emerges in regenerative intestinal cells when epithelial integrity is lost, a phenotype of wound healing deployed in metastasisinitiating cells.

Bladder cancer can be categorized into organ confined and nonorgan confined tumors. This dichotomous grouping is better suited for evaluating adjuvant clinical trials. The pT stage of the bladder and prostate should be prospectively analyzed together to better define the clinical implications of prostatic involvement. In our opinion the histological subtypes do not affect outcome.

Bladder cancer can be categorized into organ confined and nonorgan confined tumors. This dichotomous grouping is better suited for evaluating adjuvant clinical trials. The pT stage of the bladder and prostate should be prospectively analyzed together to better define the clinical implications of prostatic involvement. In our opinion the histological subtypes do not affect outcome.

We report a 5.3% frequency of multifocal renal cortical tumors and a 3.5% frequency of clinically unsuspected multifocal tumors. Multifocality had no apparent effect on recurrence or survival in patients who underwent radical nephrectomy.

T cell receptor (TCR) signal strength is a key determinant of T cell responses. We developed a cancer mouse model in which tumor-specific CD8 T cells (TST cells) encounter tumor antigens with varying TCR signal strength. High-signal-strength interactions caused TST cells to up-regulate inhibitory receptors (IRs), lose effector function, and establish a dysfunction-associated molecular program. TST cells undergoing low-signal-strength interactions also up-regulated IRs, including PD1, but retained a cell-intrinsic functional state. Surprisingly, neither high- nor low-signal-strength interactions led to tumor control in vivo, revealing two distinct mechanisms by which PD1hi TST cells permit tumor escape; high signal strength drives dysfunction, while low signal strength results in functional inertness, where the signal strength is too low to mediate effective cancer cell killing by functional TST cells. CRISPR-Cas9–mediated fine-tuning of signal strength to an intermediate range improved anti-tumor activity in vivo. Our study defines the role of TCR signal strength in TST cell function, with important implications for T cell–based cancer immunotherapies.

Mutations of subunits of the SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling complexes occur commonly in cancers of different lineages, including advanced thyroid cancers. Here we show that thyroidspecific loss of Arid1a, Arid2 or Smarcb1 in mouse Braf V600E -mutant tumors promotes disease progression and decreased survival, associated with lesion-specific effects on chromatin accessibility and differentiation. As compared to normal thyrocytes, Braf V600E -mutant mouse PTCs have decreased lineage transcription factor expression and accessibility to their target DNA