Understanding the full scope of human impact on wildlife populations requires a framework to assess the population‐level repercussions of nonlethal disturbance. The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework provides such an approach, by linking the effects of disturbance on the behavior and physiology of individuals to their population‐level consequences. Bio‐energetic models have been used as implementations of PCoD, as these integrate the behavioral and physiological state of an individual with the state of the environment, to mediate between disturbance and biological significant changes in vital rates (survival, growth, and reproduction). To assess which levels of disturbance lead to adverse effects on population growth rate requires a bio‐energetic model that covers the complete life cycle of the organism under study. In a density‐independent setting, the expected lifetime reproductive output of a single female can then be used to predict the level of disturbance that leads to population decline. Here, we present such a model for a medium‐sized cetacean, the long‐finned pilot whale ( Globicephala melas ). Disturbance is modeled as a yearly recurrent period of no resource feeding for the pilot whale female and her calf. Short periods of disturbance lead to the pre‐weaned death of the first one or more calves of the young female. Higher disturbance levels also affect survival of calves produced later in the life of the female, in addition to degrading female survival. The level of disturbance that leads to a negative population growth rate strongly depends on the available resources in the environment. This has important repercussion for the timing of disturbance if resource availability fluctuates seasonally. The model predicts that pilot whales can tolerate on average three times longer periods of disturbance in seasons of high resource availability, compared to disturbance happening when resources are low. Although our model is specifically parameterized for pilot whales, it provides useful insights into the general consequences of nonlethal disturbance. If appropriate data on life history and energetics are available, it can be used to provide management advice for specific species or populations.

In basic intraguild predation (IGP) systems, predators and prey also compete for a shared resource. Theory predicts that persistence of these systems is possible when intraguild prey is superior in competition and productivity is not too high. IGP often results from ontogenetic niche shifts, in which the diet of intraguild predators changes as a result of growth in body size (life-history omnivory). As a juvenile, a life-history omnivore competes with the species that becomes its prey later in life. Competition can hence limit growth of young predators, while adult predators can suppress consumers and therewith neutralize negative effects of competition. We formulate and analyze a stage-structured model that captures both basic IGP and life-history omnivory. The model predicts increasing coexistence of predators and consumers when resource use of stage-structured predators becomes more stage specific. This coexistence depends on adult predators requiring consumer biomass for reproduction and is less likely when consumers outcompete juvenile predators, in contrast to basic IGP. Therefore, coexistence occurs when predation structures the community and competition is negligible. Consequently, equilibrium patterns over productivity resemble those of three-species food chains. Life-history omnivory thus provides a mechanism that allows intraguild predators and prey to coexist over a wide range of resource productivity.

Animals make behavioural and reproductive decisions that maximise their lifetime reproductive success, and thus their fitness, in light of periodic and stochastic variability of the environment. Modelling the variation of an individual's energy levels formalises this tradeoff and helps to quantify the population‐level consequences of stressors (e.g. disturbance from human activities and environmental change) that can affect behaviour or physiology. In this study, we develop a dynamic state variable model for the spatially explicit behaviour, physiology and reproduction of a female, long‐lived, migratory marine vertebrate. The model can be used to investigate the spatio‐temporal patterns of behaviour and reproduction that allow an individual to maximise its overall reproductive output. We parametrised the model for eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus, and used it to predict the effects of changing environmental conditions and increasing human disturbance on the population's vital rates. In baseline conditions, the model output had high fidelity to observed energy dynamics, movement patterns and reproductive strategies. Simulated scenarios suggested that environmental changes could have severe consequences on the population's vital rates, but that individuals could tolerate high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. However, this ability depended on where, when and how often disturbance occurred. In scenarios with both environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance, synergistic interactions caused stronger effects than in isolation. In general, larger body size offered a buffer against stochasticity and disturbance, and, consequently, we predicted juveniles to be more susceptible to disturbance. We also predicted that females prioritise their own survival at the expense of the current reproductive attempt, presumably the result of their long lifespan. Our approach provides a general framework to make predictions of the cumulative and synergistic effects of human disturbance and climate change on migratory populations, which can inform effective management and conservation efforts.

Predators often exert strong top-down regulation of prey, but in many systems, juvenile predators must compete with their future prey for a shared resource. In such life-history intraguild predation (LHIGP) systems, prey can therefore also regulate the recruitment and thus population dynamics of their predator via competition. Theory predicts that such stage-structured systems exhibit a wide range of dynamics, including alternative stable states. Here we show that cannibalism is an exceedingly common interaction within natural LHIGP systems that determines what coexistence states are possible. Using a modeling approach that simulates a range of ontogenetic diet shift scenarios along a productivity gradient, we demonstrate that only if the predator is competitively dominant can cannibalism promote coexistence by allowing prey to persist. If the prey is competitively dominant, cannibalism instead results in competitive exclusion of the predator and the loss of potential alternative stable states. Further, predator exclusion occurs at low cannibalistic preference relative to empirical estimates and is consistent across LHIGP systems in which the predator undergoes a complete diet shift or diet broadening over ontogeny. Given that prey is frequently competitively dominant in natural systems, our results demonstrate that even weak cannibalism can inhibit predator persistence, prompting exploration of mechanisms that reconcile theory with the common occurrence of such interactions in nature.

Growth in body size is accompanied by changes in foraging capacity and metabolic costs, which lead to changes in competitive ability during ontogeny. The resulting size‐dependent competitive asymmetry influences population dynamics and community structure, but it is not clear whether natural selection leads to asymmetry in intraspecific competition. We address this question by using a size‐structured consumer–resource model, in which the strength and direction of competitive asymmetry between different consumer individuals depends on the scaling of maximum ingestion and maintenance metabolism with consumer body size. We use adaptive dynamics to study selection on the scaling exponents of these processes. Selection leads to an identical scaling of maximum ingestion and maintenance metabolism with consumer body size. Equal scaling exponents neutralize strong competitive differences within the consumer population, because all consumer individuals require the same amount of resources to cover maintenance requirements. Furthermore, the scaling exponents respond adaptively to changes in mortality such that biomass production through growth or reproduction increases in the life stage that is subject to increased mortality. Also, decreasing size at birth leads to increased investment in juvenile growth, while increasing maximum size leads to increased investment in post‐maturation growth and reproduction. These results provide an explanation for observed variation in the ontogenetic scaling of metabolic rate with body size. Data of teleost fish are presented that support these predictions. However, selection towards equal scaling exponents is contradicted by empirical findings, which suggests that additional ecological complexity beyond this basic consumer–resource interaction is required to understand the evolution of size‐dependent asymmetry in intraspecific competition. A plain language summary is available for this article.