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Long-distance migrations are among the wonders of the natural world, but this multitaxon review shows that the characteristics of species that undertake such movements appear to make them particularly vulnerable to detrimental impacts of climate change. Migrants are key components of biological systems in high latitude regions, where the speed and magnitude of climate change impacts are greatest. They also rely on highly productive seasonal habitats, including wetlands and ocean upwellings that, with climate change, may become less food-rich and predictable in space and time. While migrants are adapted to adjust their behaviour with annual changes in the weather, the decoupling of climatic variables between geographically separate breeding and nonbreeding grounds is beginning to result in mistimed migration. Furthermore, human land-use and activity patterns will constrain the ability of many species to modify their migratory routes and may increase the stress induced by climate change. Adapting conservation strategies for migrants in the light of climate change will require substantial shifts in site designation policies, flexibility of management strategies and the integration of forward planning for both people and wildlife. While adaptation to changes may be feasible for some terrestrial systems, wildlife in the marine ecosystem may be more dependent on the degree of climate change mitigation that is achievable.

Genetic variability is the clay of evolution, providing the base material on which adaptation and speciation depend. It is often assumed that most interspeci¢c di¡erences in variability are due primarily to population size e¡ects, with bottlenecked populations carrying less variability than those of stable size. However, we show that population bottlenecks are unlikely to be the only factor, even in classic case studies such as the northern elephant seal and the cheetah, where genetic polymorphism is virtually absent. Instead, we suggest that the low levels of variability observed in endangered populations are more likely to result from a combination of publication biases, which tend to in£ate the level of variability which is considered normal', and inbreeding e¡ects, which may hasten loss of variability due to drift. To account for species with large population sizes but low variability we advance three hypotheses. First, it is known that certain metapopulation structures can result in e¡ective population sizes far below the census size. Second, there is increasing evidence that heterozygous sites mutate more frequently than equivalent homozygous sites, plausibly because mismatch repair between homologous chromosomes during meiosis provides extra opportunities to mutate. Such a mechanism would undermine the simple relationship between heterozygosity and e¡ective population size. Third, the fact that related species that di¡er greatly in variability implies that large amounts of variability can be gained or lost rapidly. We argue that such cases are best explained by rapid loss through a genome-wide selective sweep, and suggest a mechanism by which this could come about, based on forced changes to a control gene inducing coevolution in the genes it controls. Our model, based on meiotic drive in mammals, but easily extended to other systems, would tend to facilitate population isolation by generating molecular incompatabilities. Circumstances can even be envisioned in which the process could provide intrinsic impetus to speciation.

Managing the nonlethal effects of disturbance on wildlife populations has been a long‐term goal for decision makers, managers, and ecologists, and assessment of these effects is currently required by European Union and United States legislation. However, robust assessment of these effects is challenging. The management of human activities that have nonlethal effects on wildlife is a specific example of a fundamental ecological problem: how to understand the population‐level consequences of changes in the behavior or physiology of individual animals that are caused by external stressors. In this study, we review recent applications of a conceptual framework for assessing and predicting these consequences for marine mammal populations. We explore the range of models that can be used to formalize the approach and we identify critical research gaps. We also provide a decision tree that can be used to select the most appropriate model structure given the available data. Synthesis and applications: The implementation of this framework has moved the focus of discussion of the management of nonlethal disturbances on marine mammal populations away from a rhetorical debate about defining negligible impact and toward a quantitative understanding of long‐term population‐level effects. Here we demonstrate the framework's general applicability to other marine and terrestrial systems and show how it can support integrated modeling of the proximate and ultimate mechanisms that regulate trait‐mediated, indirect interactions in ecological communities, that is, the nonconsumptive effects of a predator or stressor on a species' behavior, physiology, or life history.

The harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) has one of the broadest geographic distributions of any pinniped, stretching from the east Baltic, west across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to southern Japan. Although individuals may travel several hundred kilometers on annual feeding migrations, harbor seals are generally believed to be philopatric, returning to the same areas each year to breed. Consequently, seals from different areas are likely to be genetically differentiated, with levels of genetic divergence increasing with distance. Differentiation may also be caused by long-standing topographic barriers such as the polar sea ice. We analyzed samples of 227 harbor seals from 24 localities and defined 34 genotypes based on 435 bp of control region sequence. Phylogenetic analysis and analysis of molecular variance showed that populations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and east and west coast populations of these oceans are significantly differentiated. Within these four regions, populations that are geographically farthest apart generally are the most differentiated and often do not share genotypes or differ in genotype frequency. The average corrected sequence divergence between populations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is 3.28% +/- 0.38% and those among populations within each of these oceans are 0.75% +/- 0.69% and 1.19% +/- 0.65%, respectively. Our results suggest that harbor seals are regionally philopatric, on the scale of several hundred kilometers. However, genetic discontinuities may exist, even between neighboring populations such as those on the Scottish and east English coasts or the east and west Baltic. The mitochondrial data are consistent with an ancient isolation of populations in both oceans, due to the development of polar sea ice. In the Atlantic and Pacific, populations appear to have been colonized from west to east with the European populations showing the most recent common ancestry. We suggest the recent ancestry of European seal populations may reflect recolonization from Ice Age refugia after the last glaciation.

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Summary Changes in natural patterns of animal behaviour and physiology resulting from anthropogenic disturbance may alter the conservation status of a population if they affect the ability of individuals to survive, breed or grow. However, information to forecast population‐level consequences of such changes is often lacking. We developed an interim framework to assess the population consequences of disturbance when empirical information is sparse. We show how daily effects of disturbance, which are often straightforward to estimate, can be scaled to the disturbance duration and to multiple sources of disturbance. We used expert elicitation to estimate parameters that define how changes in individual behaviour or physiology affect vital rates and incorporated them into a stochastic population model. Model outputs can be used to evaluate cumulative impacts of disturbance over space and time. As an example, we forecast the potential effects of disturbance from offshore wind farm construction on the North Sea harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) population. Synthesis and applications. The interim framework can be used to forecast the effects of disturbances from human activities on animal populations, to assess the effectiveness of mitigation measures and to identify priority areas for research that reduces uncertainty in population forecasts. The last two applications are likely to be important in situations where there is a risk of unacceptable change in a species' conservation status. The framework should, however, be augmented with empirical data as soon as these are available.