IntroductionThe incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasing worldwide. When diagnosed, many patients already have organ damage or advance subclinical atherosclerosis. An early diagnosis could allow the implementation of lifestyle changes and treatment options aimed at delaying the progression of the disease and to avoid cardiovascular complications. Different scores for identifying undiagnosed diabetes have been reported, however, their performance in populations of southern Europe has not been sufficiently evaluated. The main objectives of our study are: to evaluate the screening performance and cut-off points of the main scores that identify the risk of undiagnosed T2DM and prediabetes in a Spanish population, and to develop and validate our own predictive models of undiagnosed T2DM (screening model), and future T2DM (prediction risk model) after 5-year follow-up. As a secondary objective, we will evaluate the atherosclerotic burden of the population with undiagnosed T2DM.Methods and analysisPopulation-based prospective cohort study with baseline screening, to evaluate the performance of the FINDRISC, DANISH, DESIR, ARIC and QDScore, against the gold standard tests: Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance and/or HbA1c. The sample size will include 1352 participants between the ages of 45 and 74 years. Analysis: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratio positive, likelihood ratio negative and receiver operating characteristic curves and area under curve. Binary logistic regression for the first 700 individuals (derivation) and last 652 (validation) will be performed. All analyses will be calculated with their 95% CI; statistical significance will be p<0.05.Ethics and disseminationThe study protocol has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Carlos III Hospital (Madrid). The score performance and predictive model will be presented in medical conferences, workshops, seminars and round table discussions. Furthermore, the predictive model will be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal to further increase the exposure of the scores.

AimTo describe the prevalence of Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) in a random population sample and to evaluate its relationship with Mediterranean diet and with other potential cardiovascular risk factors such as serum uric acid and pulse pressure in individuals ranged 45 to 74 years.MethodsCross-sectional analysis of 1568 subjects (mean age 6.5 years, 43% males), randomly selected from the population. A fasting blood sample was obtained to determine glucose, lipids, and HbA1C levels. An oral glucose tolerance test was performed in non-diabetic subjects. PAD was evaluated by ankle–brachial index and/or having a prior diagnosis.ResultsPAD prevalence was 3.81% (95% CI, 2.97–4.87) for all participants. In men, PAD prevalence was significantly higher than in women [5.17% (95% CI, 3.74–7.11) vs. 2.78% (95% CI, 1.89–4.07); p = 0.014].Serum uric acid in the upper quartile was associated with the highest odds ratio (OR) of PAD (for uric acid > 6.1 mg/dl, OR = 4.31; 95% CI, 1.49–12.44). The remaining variables more strongly associated with PAD were: Heart rate >90 bpm (OR = 4.16; 95%CI, 1.62–10.65), pulse pressure in the upper quartile (≥ 54 mmHg) (OR = 3.82; 95%CI, 1.50–9.71), adherence to Mediterranean diet (OR = 2.73; 95% CI, 1.48–5.04), and former smoker status (OR = 2.04; 95%CI, 1.00–4.16).ConclusionsOur results show the existence of a low prevalence of peripheral artery disease in a population aged 45–74 years. Serum uric acid, pulse pressure and heart rate >90 bpm were strongly associated with peripheral artery disease. The direct association between Mediterranean diet and peripheral artery disease that we have found should be evaluated through a follow-up study under clinical practice conditions.