Species interactions have a spatiotemporal component driven by environmentalcues, which if altered by climate change can drive shifts in community dynamics.There is insufficient understanding of the precise time windows during which inter-annual variation in weather drives phenological shifts and the consequences for mismatches between interacting species and resultant population dynamicsparticularly for insects. We use a 20 year study on a tri-trophic system: sycamore Acer pseudoplatanus, two associated aphid species Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus testudinaceus and their hymenopteran parasitoids. Using a sliding window approach, we assess climatic drivers of phenology in all three trophic levels. We quantify the magnitude of resultant trophic mismatches between aphids and their plant hosts and parasitoids, and then model the impacts of these mismatches, direct weather effects and density dependence on local-scale aphid population dynamics.Warmer temperatures in mid-March to late-April were associated with advanced sycamore budburst, parasitoid attack and (marginally) D. platanoidis emergence.The precise time window during which spring weather advances phenology varies considerably across each species. Crucially, warmer temperatures in late winter delayed the emergence of both aphid species. Seasonal variation in warming rates thus generates marked shifts in the relative timing of spring events across trophic levels and mismatches in the phenology of interacting species. Despite this, we found no evidence that aphid population growth rates were adversely impacted by the magnitude of mismatch with their host plants or parasitoids, or direct impacts of temperature and precipitation. Strong density dependence effects occurred in both aphid species and probably buffered populations, through density-dependent compensation, from adverse impacts of the marked inter-annual climatic variation that occurred during the study period. These findings explain the resilience of aphid populations to climate change and uncover a key mechanism, warmer winter temperatures delaying insect phenology, by which climate change drives asynchronous shifts between interacting species. K E Y W O R D Semergence, hymenopteran parasitoids, pests, phytophagous insects, population size, woodland | 2815 SENIOR Et al.

Consequences of climate change-driven shifts in the relative timing of spring activities of interacting species are insufficiently understood, especially for insects. We use a controlled experiment which simulates a trophic mismatch scenario in which lepidopteran larvae predominately feed on older leaves due to foliage developing faster than larvae growth rates. As a case study our experiment uses Orthosia cerasi, which is a widespread but declining woodland moth whose UK declines appear to be driven by warming temperatures. In the control experiment larvae are fed young oak Quercus robur leaves (bud burst stages six and seven), whilst in the treatment newly emerged larvae are fed young leaves but then gradually transition to feed on older leaves (post bud burst stage seven). We assess impacts on duration of the larval stage, pupal size and overwintering duration and survival. Larvae in the phenological mismatch treatment had a longer larval period, and smaller and lighter pupae. Larval diet did not carry over to influence emergence dates as earlier pupation of control larvae was balanced by an equivalent increase in the duration of the pupal stage. Increased time spent as larvae could increase predation rates from avian predators, whilst slowing the seasonal decline in food availability for those bird species. Reduced pupal size and weight are indicators of lower fecundity in emerging adults. Notably, we find that adults emerging from the mismatch treatment exhibited greater rates of abnormal vestigial wing development, which is likely to further reduce fitness. Trophic mismatches in which caterpillars have reduced availability of young leaves may thus contribute to the population declines observed in many woodland moth species due to increased mortality at larval stages, and adverse effects of early life conditions that reduce the reproductive success of emerging adults.