Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.
in all months, and mean precipitation increased in most months (Fig. 2a). 68Spatial variability in climatic change (Fig. 2b,c), necessitates local matching of phenological 69 and climatic datasets rather than the use of regionally-averaged climate data (e.g. Central 70England Temperatures) or large-scale climatic indicators (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation). 71We did not make the restrictive assumption that biological events would be related to annual CSP precip varied less among trophic levels than the upper limit (Fig. 3d,f) consumers were less than those for primary consumers (Fig. 5a). This occurred because, 195averaged across species, the opposing climate responses of primary producers and secondary 196consumers are more similar in magnitude than are those for primary consumers (Fig. 3), 197 effectively "cancelling each other out". Our models suggest greater average advances for 198 crustacea, fish and insects than for other groups, such as freshwater phytoplankton, birds and 199 mammals (Fig. 5b). However, response-variation is high for crustacea (Fig. 5b). not estimated for marine plankton data (see above), and so the second-phase LME models 441 were run twice: once to examine correlations with temperature and precipitation for all but 442 the marine plankton phenological series (9,800 series), and once to examine only correlations 443 with temperature for the whole data set (10,003 series).
The mechanisms underpinning the structure of social networks in multiple fish populations were investigated. To our knowledge this is the first study to provide replication of social networks and therefore probably the first that allows general conclusions to be drawn. The social networks were all found to have a non-random structure and exhibited 'social cliquishness'. A number of factors were observed to contribute to this structuring. Firstly, social network structure was influenced by body length and shoaling tendency, with individuals interacting more frequently with conspecifics of similar body length and shoaling tendency. Secondly, individuals with many social contacts were found to interact with each other more often than with other conspecifics, a phenomenon known as a 'positive degree correlation'. Finally, repeated interactions between pairs of individuals occurred within the networks more often than expected by random interactions. The observed network structures will have ecological and evolutionary implications. For example, the occurrence of positive degree correlations suggests the possibility that pathogens and information (that are socially transmitted) could spread very fast within the populations. Furthermore, the occurrence of repeated interactions between pairs of individuals fulfils an important pre-requisite for the evolution of reciprocal altruism.
The movement strategies of birds and mammals are often closely linked to their mating system, but few studies have examined the relationship between mating systems and movement in fishes. We examined the movement patterns of the guppy ( Poecilia reticulata) in the Arima river of Trinidad and predicted that sexual asymmetry in reproductive investment would result in male-biased movement. Since male guppies maximize their reproductive success by mating with as many different females as possible, there should be strong selection for males to move in search of mates. In agreement with our prediction, the percentage of fish that emigrated from release pools was higher for males than females (27.3% vs. 6.9%, respectively). Sex ratio was highly variable among pools and may influence a male's decision to emigrate or continue moving. We also detected a positive relationship between body length and the probability of emigration for males and a significant bias for upstream movement by males. Among the few females that did emigrate, a positive correlation was observed between body length and distance moved. Sex-biased movement appears to be related to mating systems in fishes, but the evidence is very limited. Given the implications for ecology, evolution, and conservation, future studies should explicitly address the influence of sex and mating systems on movement patterns.
Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate‐driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among‐population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space‐temperature and time‐temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature‐mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.
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