Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO), which are key PM and ozone precursors. Regulated NO emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NO under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM- and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NO emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NO emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.

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The emissions of CO2 and regulated pollutants (NOx, HC, CO, PM) of thirteen Euro 5 compliant passenger cars (seven gasoline, six Diesel) were measured on a chassis dynamometer. The vehicles were driven repeatedly over the European type-approval driving cycle (NEDC) and the more dynamic WMTC and CADC driving cycles. Distance-specific emission factors were derived for each pollutant and sub-cycle, and these were subsequently compared to the corresponding emission factors provided by the reference European models used for vehicle emission inventory compilation (COPERT and HBEFA) and put in context with the applicable European emission limits. The measured emissions stayed below the legal emission limits when the type-approval cycle (NEDC) was used. Over the more dynamic cycles (considered more representative of real-world driving) the emissions were consistently higher but in most cases remained below the type-approval limit. The high NOx emissions of Diesel vehicles under real-world driving conditions remain the main cause for environmental concern regarding the emission profile of Euro 5 passenger cars. Measured emissions of NOx exceeded the type-approval limits (up to 5 times in extreme cases) and presented significantly increased average values (0.35 g/km for urban driving and 0.56 g/km for motorway driving). The comparison with the reference models showed good correlation in all cases, a positive finding considering the importance of these tools in emission monitoring and policy-making processes.

European regulation 2016/427 (the first package of the so-called Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) regulation) introduced on-road testing with Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS) to complement the chassis dynamometer laboratory (Type I) test for the type approval of light-duty vehicles in the European Union since September 2017. The Not-To-Exceed (NTE) limit for a pollutant is the Type I test limit multiplied by a conformity factor that includes a margin for the additional measurement uncertainty of PEMS relative to standard laboratory equipment. The variability of measured results related to RDE trip design, vehicle operating conditions, and data evaluation remain outside of the uncertainty margin. The margins have to be reviewed annually (recital 10 of regulation 2016/646). This paper lays out the framework used for the first review of the NOx margin, which is also applicable to future margin reviews. Based on experimental data received from the stakeholders of the RDE technical working group in 2017, two NOx margin scenarios of 0.24–0.43 were calculated, accounting for different assumptions of possible zero drift behaviour of the PEMS during the tests. The reduced uncertainty margin compared to the one foreseen for 2020 (0.5) reflects the technical improvement of PEMS over the past few years.