This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model, in which a Family Policy Index (XFPI) is included to measure and compare two different models of provision of resources to support families with children from 0 to 3 years old. The main variables in this model are the XFPI, fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. This mathematical model was validated in two different countries, Spain and Norway, during the 2007-2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the future trend (2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025)(2026)(2027)(2028)(2029)(2030), examining the influence of providing public pre-school services (0 to 3 years) on (XISF). The results obtained show that these services may indeed have an influence on fertility rates, as long as they are developed extensively.
Back to the future: a sensitivity analysis to predict future fertility rates considering the influence of family policies. The cases of Spain and Norway. 1
This paper examines the policies and resources regarding the care of children under three years of age in two European countries that represent two different models of Welfare State, on the one hand Spain, framed in the Mediterranean or familist model and, on the other hand, Norway, enclosed in the Scandinavian model. Indeed, the care of children under three years is a matter of particular relevance since it influences directly on work-life balance strategies and also on gender and social equality. These aspects have been analyzed using the most relevant theories about the principles and motivations of the different Welfare State models. Simultaneously we have examined the existing resources in both countries and the challenges faced as a result of the social transformations occurred in recent decades and, specifically, the modifications in family policies and resources during the current financial crisis.
This article examines the resilient strategies of those people who were politically or ideologically repressed during Francoism. In total, 57 individuals were interviewed in depth in order to establish the strategies that they adopted to overcome adverse situations. The memories of the interviewees not only bring to light the diversity of resources used to face repression, but they also show how their individual strategies of resilience were linked to a collective resilience framework involving a large segment of the population who are still alive or who have handed on their experiences to their descendants. Past memories are consequently connected in the present with the (re)creation of a common identity and the restoration of dignity to the victims, who were classified as criminals in historical and legal archives and also suffered a process of social stigmatization. However, the aim of this article is not to resurrect the conflict in a society that has been ideologically divided for decades nor to transform history, but to cover the existing gaps in the official history. By doing this, it should be possible to strengthen the social and democratic values in a society that needs to build a future that is free from the ideological confrontations of the past.
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