The problem of supply management in the supplier-to-consumer logistics transport system has been formed and solved. The novelty of the formulation of the problem consists in the integrated accounting of costs in the logistic system, which takes into account at the same time the cost of transporting products from suppliers to consumers, as well as the costs for each of the consumers to store the unsold product and losses due to possible shortages. The resulting optimization problem is no longer a standard linear programming problem. In addition, the work assumes that the solution of the problem should be sought taking into account the fact that the initial data of the problem are not deterministic. The analysis of traditional methods of describing the uncertainty of the source data. It is concluded that, given the rapidly changing conditions for the implementation of the delivery process in a distributed supplier-to-consumer system, it is advisable to move from a theoretical probability representation of the source data to their description in terms of fuzzy mathematics. At the same time, in particular, the fuzzy values of the demand for the delivered product for each consumer are determined by their membership functions. Distribution of supplies in the system is described by solving a mathematical programming problem with a nonlinear objective function and a set of linear constraints of the transport type. In forming the criterion, a technology is used to transform the membership functions of fuzzy parameters of the problem to its theoretical probabilistic counterparts-density distribution of demand values. The task is reduced to finding for each consumer the value of the ordered product, minimizing the average total cost of storing the unrealized product and losses from the deficit. The initial problem is reduced to solving a set of integral equations solved, in general, numerically. It is shown that in particular, important for practice, particular cases, this solution is achieved analytically. The paper states the insufficient adequacy of the traditionally used mathematical models for describing fuzzy parameters of the problem, in particular, the demand. Statistical processing of real data on demand shows that the parameters of the membership functions of the corresponding fuzzy numbers are themselves fuzzy numbers. Acceptable mathematical models of the corresponding fuzzy numbers are formulated in terms of bifuzzy mathematics. The relations describing the membership functions of the bifuzzy numbers are given. A formula is obtained for calculating the total losses to storage and from the deficit, taking into account the bifuzzy of demand. In this case, the initial task is reduced to finding the distribution of supplies, at which the maximum value of the total losses does not exceed the permissible value.
This paper addresses the task to devise a statistical estimation procedure in an event where the volume of the array of initial data used in processing is insufficient to correctly determine the parameters of the response function. The object of research is the technology of statistical processing of a small sample of data. The subject of the study is the methods of statistical estimation under conditions of a small sample of initial data. The main direction is to devise a special procedure for statistical processing of a small sample of initial data, which provides a correct statistical estimation of the parameters of the response function. The method for solving the problem is the selection of the most representative orthogonal replica-like subplan from the plan of a complete factorial experiment obtained by artificially orthogonalizing the results of a passive experiment. The necessity and expediency of the proposed procedure is a consequence of the unpredictability and uneven distribution of points in the phase space of coordinates. The result of the implementation of the corresponding procedure is a truncated orthogonal plan of the full factorial experiment, which provides the possibility of independent estimation of all coefficients of the regression polynomial describing the response function. Under conditions of a severe shortage of the number of measurements, the procedure makes it possible to isolate a representative orthogonal replica from the resulting plan of a complete factorial experiment. Using this subplan of the full factorial experiment plan makes it possible to evaluate all the coefficients of the regression polynomial that describes the desired response function. The corresponding computational procedure is based on solving the triaxial Boolean assignment problem
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