Within the framework of this scientific article, we conduct a study of the dynamics of Russian exports, taking into account the variability of the world commodity markets of hydrocarbons. Interest is presented by the hypothesis proposed by the authors about groups of factors, which makes it possible to quantify the influence of each group of factors on the country’s exports. At the same time, the factors allowing assessing the impact of changes in hydrocarbon prices on exports are allocated to a separate research group. In addition, taking into account the analysis of scenarios for the development of the world economy, the authors present the results of their own estimates of the dynamics of Russian exports, taking into account changes in prices for hydrocarbon energy.

The article is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of the scenario approach to assess the prospects for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of countries using the example of the largest world leaders: the United States, China, Russia. The emerging global epidemiological problem is a serious constraining factor for the development of the economies of states. From the point of view of scientifi c novelty, the analysis and assessment of development scenarios for the economies of the studied states can become the basis for drawing up an action plan to eliminate the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, within the framework of this work, scenarios of further development were considered for each of the countries. For Russia, the following scenarios were chosen baseline scenario — the pace of development of the world economy will be slow, full recovery will take place at the end of 2023; deflationary scenario — in this scenario, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the current restrictions, will persist for a long time. At the same time, oil prices will reach $ 50 per barrel only after 2023, inflation by 2023 will reach 1.5-2.5 %; pro-inflationary scenario — the effects of the pandemic will subside quickly enough, but the potential level of output in the global economy will fall deeper. At the same time, oil prices by 2023 will be $ 42–43 per barrel; risk scenario — within the framework of this scenario, the possibility of a repeat of the COVID-19 pandemic is allowed and the tightening of restrictive measures, which will negatively affect the economies of states, is not excluded. The choice of the studied states was determined not only by world leadership, but also by the degree of influence of the coronavirus on their economies. During the study, a forecast of key indicators of the economies of the United States, China and Russia for 2021 was carried out, the prospects for their dynamics in the current economic situation were assessed, and the main trends followed by the governments of states were examined and identified.

This article is devoted to the assessment of the prospects for the implementation of the project "One Belt — One Road" (OPOP) for the development of China’s trade relations with the countries of the European Union. During the study conducted under the present work, a quantitative assessment of the prospects for increasing the number of participants in the OPOP project, which has allowed to confi rm the previously represented theses, both Russian and foreign scientists about the need to increase the number of project participants. For this purpose, a method was used, which was based on the assessment based on the effectiveness of the country’s foreign trade. It should be noted that the focus of the authors was given to the development of the Northern Transport Corridor, which was due to the participation of Russia and the need to develop and deepen the trade and economic cooperation of China and the countries of the European Union, with the implementation of which the Russian Federation plays an important role, being an integral part of this transport corridor and significant Transport hub for the implementation of the OPOP initiative. Particular attention in the framework of this work was paid to the influence of coronavirus infection for the implementation of the project "One Belt — One Road" and identifying new trends in the development of international trade, due to the influence of a new coronavirus infection, in particular, concerns the failures in the work of transport infrastructure, Convexity with which the bulk of the carriage fell on the railway, and the carriage by sea and air transport had to be suspended. It should be noted that the volume of container transportation between China and the EU in 2020 increased by 57.6 % compared with the first half of 2019, which also affected the increase in trains loading, which, in turn, led to a full load existing capacity.

The purpose of the article is to consider Views evolution on the foreign trade nature for the formation of state foreign trade policy. The countries specialization in the production of certain goods that has developed in the modern world economy and the international division of labor based on it, based on the analysis of theoretical views on the nature of foreign trade, really collectively contributes to the development of the world economy. The main reason for this circumstance is the nature of specialization associated with the presence of excess production factors in the country, which make it possible to reduce costs and produce globally competitive products. At the same time, despite the fact that with such a division of labour, the world economy as a whole functions more effi ciently, the economies of individual countries participating in such a division can develop in diff erent ways. The key, from the point of view of ensuring long-term economic growth, in this regard, will be the subject of specialization of a particular country. So if it specializes in the production of products with high added value (the degree may vary depending on whether such products are high-tech, innovative or standardized industrial), the positive effect of its specialization will be maximum. At the same time, with the country’s international specialization in the production of raw materials, in the long term, the economic growth rate in it will decrease, and it will become poorer in general. In addition, the country’s large endowment with available natural resources, in the absence of reasonable state regulation of foreign trade relations, determines its place in the international division of labour as a supplier of raw materials. The above proposals can be applied by state executive, legislative and judicial authorities, as well as educational institutions in the educational process.

The authors of this scientific article conducted a comparative analysis of the trade policy of US presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The article states that the tightening of trade policy by the current President is counterproductive and has a serious impact not only on the economic development of the United States, but also on the entire world economy as a whole.