Within the framework of this scientific article, we conduct a study of the dynamics of Russian exports, taking into account the variability of the world commodity markets of hydrocarbons. Interest is presented by the hypothesis proposed by the authors about groups of factors, which makes it possible to quantify the influence of each group of factors on the country’s exports. At the same time, the factors allowing assessing the impact of changes in hydrocarbon prices on exports are allocated to a separate research group. In addition, taking into account the analysis of scenarios for the development of the world economy, the authors present the results of their own estimates of the dynamics of Russian exports, taking into account changes in prices for hydrocarbon energy.

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